SUNDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s top games, all with a recommended BETDAQ bet. Starting with RAYO VALLECANO V SEVILLA at 1pm.
RAYO VALLECANO V SEVILLA
1pm We have a huge Sunday from La Liga on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we’re going to know a lot more by the end of the today as to where sides are standing in the race for European spots. We have big games for Real Betis and Real Sociedad later as they look to recover from losses, but we start the day with Rayo Vallecano hosting Sevilla. I was shocked when I clicked into the market here to see Sevilla trading as high as 2.46. I expected them to be much lower, even odds on given the run of form that Rayo Vallecano are currently on. I know Sevilla have dropped plenty of points recently in the title race – if you could call it that – but they have an excellent chance to put in an impressive win here. Sevilla haven’t been playing bad football, they have just been recording too many draws when Real Madrid have been winning games. Not that they were ever expected to beat Real Madrid to the title, but when Real were dropping a few points at the start of the year Sevilla had an excellent chance to put some pressure on. They drew too many games then too and never took their chance. Finishing second would still be a great achievement though.
Rayo Vallecano started the season on fire, continuing their good momentum that they picked up in the Segunda Playoffs. At one stage earlier in the season it looked like they might even compete for a European spot next season. That would have been a dream, and sure enough it became a dream quickly as they dropped down the table. Their current run shows no signs of stopping, and they come into the game on a six game losing run, having not won in their last eight. They will say that they haven’t been playing too badly and that’s true, but they’ve been giving away sloppy goals and it’s hard to see how they can live with Sevilla here if Sevilla turn up in form. I would be a little worried that Sevilla have a big tie in the Europa League next week away to West Ham, and for that reason I will hold back from a Max Bet here but I still feel the 2.46 offers incredible value and is worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Sevilla to beat Rayo Vallecano at 2.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRaySev
REAL BETIS V ATHLETIC BILBAO
3.15pm Real Betis host Athletic Bilbao next and this is a massive game for Betis. Sometimes it’s easy to get overly dramatic about games and call every game a “must win” game, but I feel Betis need to win here more than most teams today. Within the space of a week they lost to Sevilla and Atletico Madrid to fall out of the Top Four which must be a huge blow to the club. You have to consider too that they looked comfortable sitting in third place for a while too, but they have been overtaken by Barcelona and Atletico Madrid now, and it’s hard to see them breaking back into that top four. Nevertheless, they need to win this game to steady ship and not totally go off the rails. Anything bar a win here would really see them out of the top four race when they’re already under the most immense pressure. It’s easy to forget this given the journey to now, but even being involved in a top four race is an incredible achievement for Real Betis and Europa League is more their level to be honest. Unfortunately for them, they had a setback in the Last 16 midweek with a 2-1 loss to Eintracht Frankfurt and they had home advantage too so they have it all to do in the second leg.
Athletic Bilbao have had a very up-and-down run lately with two wins and two losses from their last four games. It has to be a worry for this game that those two losses came away from home, however one of those games involved Barcelona who have found their form now. Perhaps more worrying is the loss to Mallorca who have been average lately and then the performance against Rayo Vallecano was very poor although they won the game. They clearly look to be struggling away from home, and this might just be the ideal fixture for Real Betis to get back on track. I do feel the odds are about right in the match odds market though and there isn’t much value on offer. It’s hard to argue Betis should be shorter or bigger than their current odds. The one thing that stands out looking at both sides is the chances give create and concede looking at their xG figures. We could get a very entertaining game here and over 2.5 goals is my best bet at 2.02. I’d have this odds on looking at the figures.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBetBil
REAL SOCIEDAD V ALAVES
5.30pm Real Sociedad will have one eye on the Real Betis game earlier in the day, because if Real Betis lose and Real Sociedad win they will go ahead of them in the table and into 5th. That would be a huge blow for Real Betis to be honest to go from 3rd to 6th within two weeks after 25 games of excellent football earlier in the season. This is also a huge game for Alaves though who are sitting in the bottom three and involved in a desperate relegation fight. Everything is to play for when you look at the bottom of the table, and given Cadiz already lost on Friday to Atletico Madrid they will view this as a good chance to jump above them. Elche, Getafe, Mallorca and Granada are all within touching distance though, and Mallorca and Granada have been quite poor recently too. Although Alaves are on the backfoot, a win will change everything given how close things are between 15th and 19th. Alaves would have been delighted to hold Sevilla to a 0-0 last week, that is definitely a bonus result and they won’t fear Real Sociedad who have been struggling a bit lately.
Sociedad are clearly the better side here, but they don’t fill me with confident when I look at their xG figures. They have been outplayed against the bigger sides, which I know doesn’t really matter when they are playing someone in the relegation zone, but in general they have been struggling to create a lot of chances. They haven’t created an xG of over 2 in a while, and although Alaves aren’t great at the back I feel Sociedad will likely make hard work of winning here. Alaves held out for 0-0 against Sevilla despite not controlling the game, and they will be aiming to frustrate again here. I feel Sociedad will grind out a win, but the 1.55 doesn’t make much appeal to me. I can see a very quiet game here as Alaves try to get a 0-0 or 1-1, and under 2.5 goals looks good value at 1.87. Sociedad haven’t been creating enough chances lately to blow a side away, so a 1-0 or 2-0 win is very likely. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see a draw here to be honest.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSocAla
BARCELONA V OSASUNA
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish a massive day as Barcelona host Osasuna. Barcelona have been playing some superb football recently and they look to be on the right path again now since Xavi took over, however they did have a setback midweek with a 0-0 draw here to Galatasaray in the Europa League. As I said in my preview of that game, Galatasaray are a limited side but they are always a tricky place to travel to given their intense atmosphere so it would have been nice to put that tie to bed with home advantage last week. Alas, they have work to do in the second leg and it won’t be easy. I expected them to hammer Galatasaray to be honest – they have been banging in goals for fun in La Liga recently and their xG figures have been very impressive. After such a bad start to the season when it looked like they were in danger of almost becoming a mid-table side, it’s nice to see them back into the top four. As I said last week, they will have many difficult times ahead of them and they’ll never be as good as they were but they are heading in the right direction anyway. It might be a few years before they can challenge Real Madrid for the title though.
Most of the season has been about picking and choosing the right moments to back Barcelona. They have been trading bigger than usual, and it’s hard to not get excited when you see the odds because you’re always comparing them to last season or years before. You have to remind yourself and this is a different side. It’s also crazy to think betting markets are always first to react – fans may think their side is still a top class side but the betting markets say different. Look at the Manchester Derby for example now – Man City are trading in the high 1.3’s or low 1.4’s when it’s bill as a “big game”. Barcelona are trading those odds here as they trade 1.37, and although I feel they will get the job done here I’m happy to avoid them this week – that’s just a few ticks too short for me. Osasuna have been pretty good away from home this season, they sat in 6th on the away form table before the weekend. I can see Barcelona grinding out a win, and Osasuna look good value on the handicap here. Osasuna are trading 1.87 +1.5 goals which looks a nice bet to me – Barcelona will have one eye on the Europa League midweek but they can grind out a close win here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Osasuna +1.5 goals to beat Barcelona at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBarOsu