SERIE A, BUNDESLIGA AND LA LIGA: The Ultra previews Sunday’s top games including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V FIORENTINA
2pm We have another cracking Sunday in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with action from Serie A, Bundesliga and La Liga. We have three odds on favourites today, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Napoli, RB Leipzig and Barcelona were a very popular treble. On first look I couldn’t put anyone off it to be honest. We start the day in Serie A with Napoli hosting Fiorentina, and the title race in Italy this season has been a joy to watch. I know Manchester City v Liverpool today in the Premier League will take all the headlines, but the title race in Serie A has been fascinating. Napoli start the day one point behind the leaders AC Milan, but they have a somewhat tricky fixture later tonight away to Torino and this will be another massive weekend. I doubt Napoli or AC Milan were expecting Inter Milan to record a huge win away to Juventus last weekend and that has definitely brought them back into the mix in a massive way. This game will be a tough test for Napoli but you have to say it’s another must win game to keep up the pace in the title race. Fiorentina started the weekend sitting in eight position and they won’t have given up on European football next season either, they have a game in hand on Roma and Lazio, and a win in that game would put them right back into the mix.
Fiorentina managed to pick up a 1-1 draw away to Inter Milan in their last away game, and they actually finished the game with a higher xG figure too. There wasn’t much in it, but it highlights how well they are playing at the moment. Even in their only recent loss away to Sassuolo, they were unlucky to lose and again finished the game with a higher xG figure. Napoli have almost certainly have to grind out a win here, but that’s just what they have been doing recently. Although I feel Napoli are a very tempting bet at 1.79, and as I said above I wouldn’t put anyone off including them in their BETDAQ Multiple today, I do feel the better value play here is under 2.5 goals at 2.08. I was sure we’d see unders as the favourite here and I was very surprised when I clicked into the market. I know Napoli have had a few goals in their recent games, but Fiorentina have had unders in their last four games and they are going to employ quite cagey tactics too. A draw wouldn’t be a bad result for Fiorentina and I can see them approaching the game like that. As I said, Napoli are going to have to work hard here and this should be a low scoring game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapFio
RB LEIPZIG V HOFFENHEIM
6.30pm We move to the Bundesliga next as RB Leipzig host Hoffenheim. Although Hoffenheim have lost ground recently in the top four race, this is still a massive game. Hoffenheim start the game four points behind RB Leipzig with Freiburg in between them too – you don’t need me to tell you how important winning could be for Hoffenheim here. Winning would be a nice idea, but in reality they come up against a RB Leipzig side in superb form. It was a great shame that we couldn’t land our Max Bet on RB Leipzig in the Europa League on Thursday – they had to settle for a 1-1 draw here against Atalanta but they absolutely battered them. They finished the game with an xG of 2.81 and we were unlucky not to collect. Over 2.5 goals backers were even more unlucky though because it was such an open game! As I said in my preview of that game, RB Leipzig started the season very slowly but they are in peak form now. They have shot up the table and are back in the top four. There is still a challenge for that spot however, but a win here would put quite a bit of distance between themselves and Hoffenheim, plus they won’t be too afraid of Freiburg behind them. Hoffenheim come into this game off the back of two losses against Hertha Berlin and Bochum – those have been two very disappointing results for a couple of reasons.
The first reason was that after they got a draw with Bayern Munich they found themselves in a pretty good position and needed to kick on after that result which is always a bonus, and the second reason is they started both those games odds on so to not even get a draw is a bitter pill to take especially in such a close race for a top four spot. Although I fully expect RB Leipzig to win here, it’s hard to make the case that they should be shorter than their current 1.51 I feel the market has priced them up very well, and there’s no value on offer there. We’ll have to look to the side markets for some value here, and it’s hard to see this game being cagey given the likely tactics of both sides. RB Leipzig have been playing very attacking football lately, and the market is also expecting goals here with over 2.5 goals trading the same price as the RB Leipzig win. I feel the bet that stands out here though is Both Teams To Score at 1.65. We should have a very open game here and Hoffenheim have been creating enough to score at some stage here – RB Leipzig are happy to give away chances in search of goals as well, and we could see a 3-1 or 4-2 game here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.65with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblHof
LEVANTE V BARCELONA
8pm We finish the day in La Liga as Levante host Barcelona. Levante finally moved off the bottom of the table last weekend with a 2-0 win over Villarreal. Anyone who follows the xG form stats will know that they didn’t deserve to be sitting bottom of the table, they didn’t even deserve to be in the relegation zone, but they have left themselves with so much work to do it’s still difficult to see them staying up. The xG table puts them into 12th which is comfortably mid-table, and as I have said before their only challenge this summer will be keeping their side together because they will bounce back up straight away with this level of performance. They have just been incredibly unlucky this season, but that’s what happens when you start the season so slowly – morale dips and it’s hard to turn things around even when you might be doing enough to win games. It’s fair to say that they won’t be expecting much from this game, but this will still be a tough challenge for Barcelona. It’s hard to argue with the price of 1.47 on Barcelona as that feels about right. They have produced a remarkable turnaround to climb into second starting the weekend – at one stage it looked like they might even miss out on Champions League football!
Barcelona had to settle for a 1-1 draw away to Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League on Thursday night, and they have left themselves with work to do in that second leg. They won’t be unhappy with that result though given they have home advantage next Thursday and they should get the job done. I have very similar thoughts on the Barcelona price here as the RB Leipzig price above. It’s hard to make the argument that they should be shorter than their current price – Levante are clearly playing better football than their place in the table suggests. They need more wins quickly to bridge the gap to the rest though, and I can’t really see that coming here. I expect Barcelona to get the job done, but we’re going to have an open game here. Barcelona have been creating a host of chances recently and they have made superb improvement going forward under Xavi. Levante aren’t short of creating chances themselves, and they usually create over a goal per game. Over 2.5 goals is more or less the same price as the Barcelona win but I feel it offers much more value in what should be a very open game.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.49with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LevBar