SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s La Liga games between REAL MADRID v GIRONA, ATHLETIC BILBAO v VILLARREAL and REAL SOCIEDAD v REAL BETIS all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V GIRONA
3.15pm It’s a Super Sunday from La Liga on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with three cracking fixtures to enjoy! We start the day with the Champions Real Madrid hosting Girona, and obviously we have the shortest price of the day here. Real Madrid will be fully expected to win this game easily, and they are trading as short as 1.24 at the time of writing. With the likes of Manchester City and Bayern Munich both in action on Saturday this weekend, surely this is the shortest price around Europe on Sunday. Girona came up from the Segunda, and they are finding life in La Liga difficult – they started the weekend sitting in the bottom three, and the last place you want to arrive to is the Bernabeu in that position. Real Madrid did suffer their first defeat of the season this week however, perhaps that might be some confidence boost to Girona! Real lost 3-2 away to RB Leipzig in the Champions League, it was a pretty even game, and a very enjoyable one to watch one, but Leipzig just came out on top. Real are still creating a huge volume of chances, and it’s going to be a case of how many they can score here rather than will they win in my opinion.
Girona have put together a run of six games without a win, they have been unlucky at times but the main issue is that they are conceding goals for fun. They shipped five at home to Real Sociedad and then three to Almeria. They were unlucky not to beat Cadiz with home advantage, creating their best xG of the season in that game but then we must remember that Cadiz are in the relegation battle too. Both sides are on a completely different planet here really – Girona are conceding an average xG of 1.5 per game, and Real Madrid are creating 2.4. What’s impressive about that 2.4 figure too is that they are only conceding an average of 1 – they are completely bossing games. The only high xG figure conceded this season in La Liga came against Barcelona. While Girona might struggle to score here, the market is still expecting goals. Over 2.5 goals is as short as 1.45, but I feel Real will cover the handicap here. They are trading 1.68 -1.5 goals and that looks cracking value – we landed a Max Bet on Real Madrid recently to cover a handicap, and we can do the same here.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Girona at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ReaGir
ATHLETIC BILBAO V VILLARREAL
5.30pm We stay in La Liga next as Athletic Bilbao host Villarreal, indeed we’re staying La Liga all day Sunday! Villarreal suffered a major setback midweek when they lost their manager Unai Emery to Aston Villa in the Premier League. You have to say, based on league positions, that Emery is probably taking a step down class wise but it just shows the pull of the Premier League at the moment. Every Premier League fan will know Emery well from his days at Arsenal, and he had been doing a great job at Villarreal. He broke the club record of unbeaten games (18 in a row), he won the Europa League in a final against Manchester United and then he managed to get them to the Champions League Semi-Finals. That was an incredible run considering that beat Juventus and Bayern Munich. Interestingly, he was approached by Newcastle when they were taken over and turned it down, so I wonder what has changed between now and then. If anything Newcastle was the better opportunity than the Aston Villa job at the moment. Villarreal have had a “sluggish” start to the season – they started the weekend sitting in 7th, but then that’s where they finished last season too. It does seem an odd time to leave, but I think I am more surprised with the position more so than anything else. He could have went to a bigger club in my opinion. All eyes will be on Villarreal now anyway to see how they perform without Emery.
Villarreal have been poor away from home recently, they bring a five game run without a win into this fixture away, but they have had a difficult fixture list. They’ve had to play Barcelona, Real Sociedad and Real Betis in that run. They did manage a 2-0 win away to Atletico Madrid earlier in the season too though. When you look at the Villarreal stats you can see that they play very solid football. “Solid” is the best word to describe them because they don’t do anything flashy up front or anything bad at the back – they are just a solid side. I was surprised to see Athletic Bilbao trading as short as 2.2 when I clicked into the market – I know Bilbao have had a strong start to the season but they have the same amount of points as Villarreal. They have been very strong at home this season which is perhaps why they are so short, but I expect a closer game than the odds suggest here. I’m happy to lay Bilbao from a value point of view, but I’m going to keep stakes small because I want to see how the Villarreal players react to Emery leaving.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Athletic Bilbao to beat Villarreal at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AthVil
REAL SOCIEDAD V REAL BETIS
8pm We finish the evening with a top quality game as Real Sociedad host Real Betis. Although all eyes will be on the Real Madrid game earlier in the day, I think this is the highlight fixture of the day in Europe. We have two excellent sides here, and it’s an absolutely massive game for both. With Sevilla starting the season so poorly, that fourth spot has definitely opened up. These two are slap bang in the running for that fourth spot and a chance to get some Champions League football. Real Betis will be the favourites given they finished in fifth place last season, but Real Sociedad were just three points behind them. With Emery leaving Villarreal too, and it’s unlikely Sevilla can bridge the gap, one of these two should take fourth. A fascinating fixture ahead so! Both sides have been playing good football this season – Real Sociedad have been impressive going forward with an average xG of 2.0 per game, while they are conceding 1.3. Real Betis are conceding the same figure, but they are creating less – their average xG is 1.6 per game. Real Betis are actually massively over-performing at the back because their actual goal conceded is an average of 0.7 – at some point sides are going to start taking their chances against them!
Real Sociedad will be hoping that’s this game, but they do feel a little short in the betting at 2.14. They have got a lot of results at home this season since losing their opening home fixture 4-1 to Barcelona – the 1-0 win over Villarreal was especially impressive because they finished with an xG of 2.80 and only conceded 0.18. They picked up a draw against Atletico Madrid here too, but I still feel the 2.14 is too short. Betis haven’t been poor away from home, and in general they have been playing good football. They were unlucky to lose against Atletico Madrid last weekend, creating an xG of nearly three times what they conceded and they should have beaten Cadiz before that too. Although the Real Sociedad lay is a tempting position, I do like Under 2.5 goals here at 1.8. I think this game screams a cagey game without many chances. Both sides will know how important this fixture is looking at the table, and I wouldn’t expect them to be throwing men forward – Unders looks a very nice position, but I couldn’t put anyone off the Sociedad lay either.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ScdBet