SERIE A SUNDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra is in terrific form and now previews Sunday’s final day of the season games between SPAL v FIORENTINA, GENOA v VERONA and LECCE v PARMA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
SPAL V FIORENTINA
5pm It’s the final day of Serie A and we have some massive fixtures. All eyes will be on the situation at the bottom of the table in the 7-45pm games, however we start the evening with SPAL hosting Fiorentina. Neither side have anything to play for here so I’m keeping my stakes reasonably small, however Fiorentina look excellent value at 1.51. SPAL are without a win in 11 games, and are easily the worst side in Serie A.
Sometimes xG will offer some hope to teams sitting bottom, but that hasn’t been the case with SPAL. They are where they deserve to be, and have been playing poorly all season. Fiorentina are just sitting in the bottom half of the table heading into the final weekend, but xG improves them into the top half and they should easily have enough class to beat this SPAL side. If they had something to play for, the bet would be bigger but I’m very happy with the prices.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Fiorentina to beat SPAL at 1.51 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSpaFio
GENOA V VERONA
7.45pm Two fascinating games at 7-45pm see Genoa host Verona and Lecce host Parma. Both home sides are very closely priced, and Verona and Parma are only within three points of each other. Who will stay up? We’ll find out! Genoa start the day in 17th position one point ahead of Lecce, so they have the luxury of being able to lose (if Lecce also lose) and stay up. They won’t be thinking that though, and they come into the final day under immense pressure.
Genoa looked like they had done the hard work, but they’ve lost their last two games without scoring and conceding eight goals. One of those games came against Inter Milan, but Sassuolo really put them to the sword on Wednesday. Verona had been finishing the season reasonably poorly but they won 3-0 against SPAL on Wednesday, although SPAL have been woeful this season. Verona have had a lot of draws, and I feel that it’s worth laying Genoa here at the prices. 1.6 is very much a “need to win” price, and it’s one I’m happy to lay. xG says Genoa shouldn’t have won in their last five and Verona are reasonably tough to beat – they have had plenty of draws since returning from lockdown.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Genoa at 1.6 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQGenVer
LECCE V PARMA
7.45pm Lecce need to win, it’s as simple as that for them. They look pretty short at 1.55 however and I definitely wouldn’t be backing them at those odds. I feel like they have a better chance of winning than Genoa though who are only five ticks off 1.55. Parma haven’t been creating a huge amount and they also leak a lot of goals. Looking at the recent form of both sides you can only see goals here. Both teams have scored in Lecce’s last five, while both have scored in Parma’s last 12. That’s every game since lockdown!
Both teams to score is actually the bet I can’t get away from here. Lecce have to attack, and Parma usually play a very open game. They aren’t the best side in the world, hence their position in the table, but we usually see goals and action with Parma. I’m very surprised to see BTTS as big as 1.5 with BETDAQ Sportsbook, considering over 2.5 goals is shorter. Lecce have been creating good chances lately, but they’ve also been giving up high xG’s as well. BTTS is a cracking bet here at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Both Teams To Score at 1.5 with BETDAQ Sportsbook.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLecPar
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