EUROPA LEAGUE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Thursday’s games between SPARTA PRAGUE v RANGERS, LEGIA WARSAW v LEICESTER, CELTIC v BAYER LEVERKUSEN and WEST HAM v RAPID VIENNA all with extended match stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SPARTA PRAGUE V RANGERS
5.45pm We’ve had a blockbuster week in the Champions League and we move on to some very interesting fixtures in the Europa League on Thursday. I have to say we have a great mix of Europa League fixtures this season, we have big favourites, tricky away ties and very open markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start with Sparta Prague taking on Rangers and we have the most open market of the night. Both sides are trading around the same price at 2.7. Rangers started Group A on the backfoot with a loss at home to Lyon, and with Sparta Prague drawing with Brondby, they have work to do. The Europa League is different this year as 2nd place goes into a preliminary knockout round and then 3rd place transfers to the Europa Conference League so things will be competitive right until the end. Basically, Rangers can’t really afford to lose here.
It’s very difficult to compare the level of both sides here. Sparta Prague played out a very boring 0-0 with Brondby who also play at a low level. Rangers have been playing some excellent football in Scotland recently but that’s at a low level too. It’s fair to suggest that this should be a game for small stakes, and I can see why the market is so open. The draw is pretty tempting at 3.6 but given how boring the Sparta Prague game was with Brondby and I can see Rangers being very cagey here knowing they can’t afford to lose their first two games – under 2.5 goals looks good value at 1.9. I expected to see unders trading much shorter and this could be quite a dull game – I can’t see Sparta Prague being too open.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.9 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSptRan
MATCH STATS
● Sparta Prague and Rangers previously met in the first round of the European Cup in 1991-92. Sparta Prague progressed from that tie on away goals, winning 1-0 at home before losing 1-2 in Scotland.
● Sparta Prague’s 1-2 defeat to Rangers in the European Cup in October 1991 was the last time they lost to a Scottish side. They are since unbeaten in six matches against Scottish opposition (W5 D1), including two wins against Celtic in the group stages of this competition last season.
● Rangers have only lost one of their last nine away matches in the UEFA Europa League (W4 D4), and were unbeaten on the road in the competition throughout 2020-21 (W3 D2).
● Sparta Prague were unbeaten in the group stages of the UEFA Europa League in home matches between 2010-11 and 2016-17 (W10 D5), but were beaten twice in three such matches last season (W1).
● Sparta Prague drew 0-0 against Brøndby IF on MD1 – their game saw the fewest shots (16) and had the lowest total xG (0.8) of any game in the opening round of the 2021-22 UEFA Europa League.
LEGIA WARSAW V LEICESTER
5.45pm Next we have a very interesting betting heat as Leicester are trading 1.7 away to Legia Warsaw. This is a big game for Leicester in my opinion, Legia Warsaw won their opening game and Leicester drew with Napoli. I would expect Napoli to beat Leicester with home advantage, especially considering the xG figures finished 2.29 to 0.90 to Napoli when Leicester had home advantage. That leaves Leicester needing two good results against Legia Warsaw because I think it’s reasonable to say nobody wants to go to the Europa Conference League. Leicester have been at their best this season either, and they have yet to fire in front of goal looking at their xG figures.
This is a classic European tie. Legia Warsaw aren’t at the same level as Leicester, but this is always a tricky place to come and win. We saw how things can go wrong quickly when Manchester United lost to Young Boys in the Champions League. I feel Leicester should be a little closer to 2.0 here rather than 1.7 and I’m happy to lay them at the odds. Their xG figures are largely unimpressive in the Premier League this season and as I said above, they have yet to fire. They have only managed two wins from six games in the Premier League and it’s not like they are recording massive xG figures and should be winning – it’s actually the opposite because they were lucky, according to xG, to win those two games.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Leicester to beat Legia Warsaw at 1.7 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLegLei
MATCH STATS
● This will be the first match between Legia Warsaw and Leicester City in European competition.
● Legia Warsaw have faced English opponents twice before in Europe – they were eliminated at the semi-final stage of the Cup Winners’ Cup by Manchester United in 1990-91, before taking four points from Blackburn Rovers in the group stages of the UEFA Champions League in 1995-96 (W1 D1).
● Leicester have three wins away from home in European competition to date, beating Glenavon in the Cup Winners’ Cup in 1961-62, Club Brugge in the UEFA Champions League in 2016-17, and AEK Athens in the UEFA Europa League in 2020-21.
● Legia Warsaw have lost one of their last six home matches in the group stages of the UEFA Europa League (W4 D1), falling to Napoli in October 2015.
● Harvey Barnes has been directly involved in five goals in six starts for Leicester in the UEFA Europa League (four goals and one assist), while he had a direct hand in both of the Foxes’ goals against Napoli on MD1, scoring once and providing an assist.
CELTIC V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
8pm Time for my most confident bet of the night! Bayer Leverkusen look excellent value here at 1.97 to beat a very average Celtic side. You only have to look at the table in Scotland to see that this isn’t a good Celtic side. Rangers have definitely taken over as the top Scottish side; however Celtic aren’t even in the top five in Scotland at the moment. They have only won three of their seven games, and then lost their opening Europa League game. They played a very open game against Real Betis when losing 4-3, and if they employ the same tactics here against an attacking Bayer Leverkusen side we will likely see a very similar result.
Bayer Leverkusen have started the Bundesliga season in red-hot form, and they currently sit in 2nd behind Bayern Munich. They’re one point ahead of Dortmund after six games, and that was their only loss in their last six games in all competitions. Dortmund actually outplayed them in a 4-3 win but we have to consider the gulf in class between Dortmund and Celtic. Leverkusen have conceded a consistent amount of chances this season but they always like to play an open game and you’re likely to see xG’s of 1.4ish conceded. Celtic have been so poor this season however I can’t see them taking advantage of that here and I can only see a Leverkusen win – I’m very happy to have a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayer Leverkusen to beat Celtic at 1.97 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCelLvr
MATCH STATS
● This will be the first meeting between Celtic and Bayer Leverkusen in European competition. Leverkusen will be the 10th different German side that Celtic have faced in Europe, while Leverkusen’s four meetings with Scottish opponents to date have all been against Rangers (W2 D1 L1).
● Celtic have won just four of their 24 matches against German opponents in European competition (D5 L15), although all four of those wins came in home matches, including last time out against RB Leipzig in this competition in 2018-19.
● When Bayer Leverkusen last faced Scottish opponents in the UEFA Europa League they defeated Rangers home and away at the Last 16 stage of the 2019-20 edition, winning 3-1 in Scotland.
● Celtic have lost 10 of their last 17 home matches in major European competition (W7) since drawing 3-3 with Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League in 2016-17. Their previous 10 such defeats at this level were spread across 50 matches.
● Bayer Leverkusen have won five of their last seven away matches in major European competition, although they did lose their last such match against Young Boys in the Last 32 of the UEFA Europa League last season.
WEST HAM V RAPID VIENNA
8pm Finally we finish the evening with one of the biggest favourites of the night as West Ham host Rapid Vienna. They aren’t quite the shortest price in the Europa League today at 1.29, but they are close! They grinded out a good win at the weekend away to Leeds and that was a nice bounce back after losing to Manchester United, drawing with Southampton and also drawing with Crystal Palace. They did win in the Europa League and League Cup in between that run, but they didn’t record impressive xG figures going forward against Dinamo Zagreb, Southampton or Crystal Palace so it was nice to see an xG of 2.06 against Leeds. It must be say though that Leeds are terrible at the back, so I wouldn’t be lumping on West Ham tonight because of that result.
The reality is however that there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here and West Ham should easily win. At 1.29 they are a good addition to any BETDAQ Acca tonight, however I’m happy to look around the side markets for something a little bigger. Rapid Vienna were outplayed with home advantage on Matchday 1 against Genk and that doesn’t look good in terms of this game. West Ham created a lot of chances last season and although they have hit a few bumps this season, they can score plenty here. Instead of the handicap options, I like West Ham/West Ham HT/FT at 1.8. This game should be one way traffic.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win West Ham/West Ham HT/FT at 1.8 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWesRap
MATCH STATS
● This will be the very first match between these two sides in European competition, with West Ham facing Austrian opposition for the first time.
● Rapid Wien have lost four of their five away games against English sides in European competition, winning the other game 3-2 against Kevin MacDonald’s Aston Villa side despite trailing with 12 minutes to go.
● West Ham have won 12 of their 17 home matches in major European competition (D2 L3), although they have failed to score in either of their last two such matches (0-0 vs FCSB in November 1999 and 0-1 vs Palermo in September 2006).
● Rapid Wien have lost 18 of their 26 away games in the UEFA Europa League to date (W5 D3), with their last away game in this competition also coming against English opponents – a 1-4 defeat against Arsenal in the group stages last season.
● West Ham midfielder Declan Rice completed 53 of his 54 pass attempts on MD1 against Dinamo Zagreb (98%), including all 32 of the passes he made in the opposition half (100%).
