THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Thursday’s games between PSV v ARSENAL and MANCHESTER UNITED v SHERIFF TIRASPOL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.


5.45pm It’s Matchday five of the Europa League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we have two interesting fixtures on Thursday with Arsenal and Manchester United in action. Manchester United are trading the shortest price of any side on Thursday to win as they are at home later to Sheriff Tiraspol, but we kick off the evening early with PSV hosting Arsenal. In a completely different market to the United game, this is one of the most open markets of the evening. We saw the reverse fixture of this tie last week because it was postponed the week the Queen of England passed away, and Arsenal ran out 1-0 winners. The score line doesn’t tell the whole story though because Arsenal absolutely bossed the game. They finished with an xG of 3.78 and they could have easily won 5-0 or 6-0. Both sides had poor results then at the weekend with PSV losing 4-2 in the Eredivisie and Arsenal being held to a 1-1 draw away to Southampton. Arsenal will point to the xG figure of 1.65 compared to Southampton’s 0.57 and say that they deserved to win the game, but they have been riding their luck lately. They were pretty average away to Bodo/Glimt with an xG of only 0.72 and then away to Leeds they were exceptionally lucky to win 1-0 but their xG figure was 0.86 and they conceded 2.35.

It’s no surprise that we have an open market here given PSV have home advantage and that Arsenal have been having issues away from home this season. However, the game last week really highlighted that there is a huge gulf in class between the sides here, and the domestic leagues they play in. I think we’d see a different Arsenal price if they ran out 5-0 winners, and looking at the xG figure that could have easily happened too. The only negative thing to say about backing Arsenal here at 2.44 is that they don’t need to win. They take a five point lead into this game with PSV in second too – a draw would be enough to get first spot with a game in hand. For that reason, and to be fair they also haven’t been amazing away from home lately, I’m going to reduce stakes on Arsenal here but I can’t see past the away win after seeing the game last week. On paper, football fans might say it was close but if you look at the under-lining numbers there’s only one winner. Arsenal completely bossed the game last week, and they can do the same here.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Arsenal to beat PSV at 2.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


8pm We finish the evening with Manchester United hosting Sheriff Tiraspol, and we have the shortest price of any side to win in the Europa League this week! Manchester United are trading as short as 1.13 at the time of writing, and although it hasn’t exactly been plain sailing for United in the Europa League this season, you’d have to expect them to win here. To be honest, anything bar an impressive win would be an upset. It was like the 3-2 win over Omonia away from home at the start of the month – it was a win but it was an embarrassing even for United given they went 2-0 down and were expected to win easily. They only managed to beat Omonia 1-0 here after that, but they did finish that game with an xG of 4.91. That result could have been 5-0 or 6-0 to be honest, and tonight is all about how many goals United can score rather than will they win. Since beating Omonia 3-0 in their opening Europa League game Sheriff Tiraspol have lost three on the bounce. They have conceded seven goals without scoring, and United were always in control in their 2-0 win away from home. Apart from the Omonia game which is obviously at a very low level, Sheriff Tiraspol haven’t created much. Their three xG figures since were 0.37, 0.36 and 0.16. With United fully expected to win here, I think the most interesting thing about this game will be whether or not Ronaldo starts after the drama against Spurs!

I was be fascinated to see what ten Hag does. Ronaldo returned to training this week after beating dropped at the weekend against Chelsea. It was a pretty even game, and United managed to get a late equaliser for a 1-1 draw. The passion from the players was very impressive at the end, and I have to say there aren’t many football fans left out there who believe this United side is better with Ronaldo. He just doesn’t fit into the ten Hag system, and it’s been no surprise that they have struggled in the Europa League this season. I feel with ten Hag, he has is favourite XI but he doesn’t have much back up – and when he doesn’t get the system he wants this United side can look very average. Sheriff Tiraspol will come here to defend, and that does make the handicap and goal markets interesting. I’d be keen to see the starting XI before taking a big position, but I’m happy with a small bet on Under 3.5 goals at 1.7 or bigger. I can see United having to grind out a win rather than do anything flashy here.

The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 3.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

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