COPA DEL REY: The Ultra previews Thursday’s blockbuster REAL MADRID v BARCELONA semi-final with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V BARCELONA
8pm We have a blockbuster Copa del Rey fixture on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Thursday! It’s an El Clasico Semi-Final, and it seems perfectly timed too as the result can have a mental impact on the La Liga title race. Real Madrid closed to gap at the weekend to seven points, but after Barcelona lost away to Almeria they will be disappointed they couldn’t close it further. On the face of it, a draw in the Madrid Derby against Atletico isn’t a bad result, but Real are pretty at the stage now when every game is a must win game. It’s hard to see Barcelona losing a seven point lead.
It hasn’t been a good week for Barcelona, and they’ll be hoping to change that here. They lost 2-1 away to Manchester United last Thursday and crashed out of Europe, then lost 1-0 away at Almeria at the weekend. In fairness, they didn’t play badly in either game. There wasn’t much in it between them and Manchester United but they finished the game with a higher xG figure than they conceded. While against Almeria, they finished that game with an xG of 1.91 – they should have won, but didn’t take their chances.
Real Madrid can say that they were unlucky at the weekend too. They had to settle for a 1-1 draw with home advantage against Atletico, but they finished the game with an xG of 2.1 and only conceded 0.33. Real took all the headlines last week in the Champions League when hammering Liverpool 5-2, but I don’t think we should read too much into that result. Liverpool have been all over the place at the back this season and they completely lost their shape when they were put under pressure.
I have to say I was very surprised to see Real trading as short as 2.0 when I clicked into the market. I expected to see them trading as the favourites because they have home advantage, but I felt we’d see an open market. Both sides have been very impressive going forward this season, but Barcelona have come right back to their best. Their average xG created is 2.4, only marginally bigger than Real Madrid at 2.3. I know Barcelona have lost their last two away games, but as I said above they didn’t play badly in either game.
I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest here – and I’m very happy with the Real Madrid lay at 2.0. I feel were getting a lot of value laying those odds. I know Real won the last El Clasico when the sides met here back. In October before the World Cup. They won 3-1, but Barcelona actually finished the game with an xG of 2.28 and played very well. By the time the sides went to the World Cup, Barcelona were top of the table. They have been the more consistent side this season – both have been incredible going forward and I expect a pretty close game here. I just feel the odds are wrong, and Barcelona can get a result. The 2.0 feels very short, and I’m happy to have a rare Max Lay!
The Ultra Says:
Five points lay (liability) Real Madrid to beat Barcelona at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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