CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Tuesday’s Champions League games between MALMO v CHELSEA and ATALANTA v MANCHESTER UNITED both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
MALMO V CHELSEA
5.45pm The Champions League returns on Tuesday and we have a fascinating week ahead. I have to say I really enjoy this two game run where we see both sides play each other home and away; it can really make or break the Group. We don’t have that scenario in our opening game however as Malmo host Chelsea. This is a case of how many goals Chelsea will score rather than will they win, and they are trading the joint-shortest (along with Bayern Munich) price to win tonight at 1.2 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s been an excellent couple of weeks for Chelsea, and with Liverpool and Manchester City dropping points at the weekend they are now three points clear at the top of the table. They came up well short when they played Liverpool and Manchester City, but they have been hammering the small sides. They beat Malmo 4-0 in London, and I doubt home advantage for Malmo with change much here.
Malmo have been the whipping boys in Group H, they’ve lost 3-0 to Juventus, 4-0 to Zenit St Petersburg and then 4-0 to Chelsea. With Chelsea trading so short in the match odds market, I’m happy to look for some value in the side markets. Obviously the markets are expecting plenty of goals here, but Any Other Away Win (Chelsea to score four or more goals at win) is 3.5 this week which does stand out. Although I couldn’t put anyone off that bet, there is a better value bet here I believe. That’s Both Teams Not To Score at 1.7 – Malmo have created next to nothing in their three Champions League games. Their xG figures are 0.46, 0.45 and they created just 0.07 against Chelsea. With Chelsea being so solid at the back and Malmo clearly struggling at this level, I would have Both Teams Not To Score much shorter than 1.7.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.7 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMlmChe
MATCH STATS
● Malmö FF have lost their three games against Chelsea in European competition by an aggregate score of 9-1.
● Chelsea are unbeaten in their seven meetings with Swedish teams to date, winning four and drawing three against them across all competitions. The last three have all been against Malmö FF, with each of them ending in Chelsea victories.
● Malmö FF have lost seven of their eight previous games against English opponents in European competition (W1), including each of the most recent four. The only time they’ve avoided defeat in such games came against Nottingham Forest in September 1995, winning 2-1 in the UEFA Cup.
● Since winning 2-0 in their first ever home game in the UEFA Champions League (v Olympiakos in October 2014), Malmö FF have only scored one goal in their last six home games in the competition (W1 L5).
● Chelsea lost their opening away game of the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League, losing against Juventus in Turin (0-1) after being unbeaten in six beforehand (W5 D1). The last time they lost consecutive away games in the competition was in November 2012 under Roberto Di Matteo.
● As of MD3, no team has conceded more goals than Malmö FF (11) in the UEFA Champions League this season, while only Besiktas (11.1) have a higher expected goals against total than the Swedish side so far (8.7).
● Chelsea have made 50 high turnovers (sequences starting within 40 metres of the opposition goal) in the UEFA Champions League this season; the most of any team so far. They also have allowed the fewest opposition passes per defensive action (7.5) in the competition this term.
● Since the start of last season, Toni Kroos (17) is the only midfielder who has initiated more shot-ending sequences of play than Chelsea’s Jorginho (16) in the UEFA Champions League.
● Malmö FF have the lowest expected goals total (0.99) among all teams in the UEFA Champions League this season, while they’re one of only three teams yet to score, as of MD3. They have also had the fewest touches in the opposition box (23) in the competition this term.
● Since the start of last season, Timo Werner has been directly involved in more goals in the UEFA Champions League than any other current Chelsea player (6 – four goals and two assists).
ATALANTA V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm Next we have the biggest talking point of the night as Atalanta host Manchester United. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s job is still on the line after the 5-0 loss to Liverpool at Old Trafford, however United bounced back superbly with a 3-0 win over Spurs at the weekend. Watching the game, the one thing that stuck out for me was the extra effort from the players. You don’t see an unhappy squad up their level of effort like that in a few days time, and it’s obviously he has the support of the players behind him in my opinion. There’s no doubt that Paul Pogba is very talented, but perhaps his attitude doesn’t suit the Premier League and it was noticeable how much stronger United looked without him in the side – he was suspended though, and we’ll just have to wait and see whether that reported “bust up” after the Liverpool game was true. Although United steadied the ship on Saturday, a loss here would pile the pressure on again and don’t forget they have to play Manchester City at the weekend too.
In my opinion, I wouldn’t sack Solskjaer, and it looks like Conte won’t be available now anyway. I feel, based on the effort the weekend, the dressing room is behind Solskjaer. I can’t wait to see what happens in this game, and we have a very open market. United were terrible in the first half against Atalanta but they came back from 2-0 down to win 3-2. When you look at that game, you have to think can United get much worse than the first half? Atalanta probably played United at their worst, and still lost. That would make United look a little too big here at 2.5, especially if they are as solid at the back as they were at the weekend. The way the Group has gone though, United still top it and they are clear by two points. A draw wouldn’t be a bad result here, and I feel that is the best value bet at 3.95. Laying Atalanta is very tempting to have the United win on my side, but the 3.95 is too big to ignore on the draw in what should be a close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.95 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAtaMun
MATCH STATS
● Atalanta have only won one of their five games against English teams in the UEFA Champions League (D1 L3), with that victory coming away at Liverpool last season. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side were beaten 3-2 by Manchester United last time out, despite taking a 2-0 lead in the game.
● Manchester United have only lost one of their last 11 games against Italian opponents in the UEFA Champions League (W8 D2), while they’ve picked up victories in five of the last six (L1).
● This will be the fourth time Atalanta have hosted an English opponent in European competition (currently W1 D1 L1). Manchester United will be their fourth different opponent in this run, having previously hosted Everton, Manchester City and Liverpool – all since the 2017-18 season.
● Manchester United are looking to record their 150th victory in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, which would make them the first English side to reach this milestone, and fourth overall after Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona.
● Atalanta have only lost two of their last eight home games in the UEFA Champions League (W3 D3), while they won 1-0 against Young Boys on MD2 this season. The Italian side have only won consecutive home games once previously in the competition, beating Dinamo Zagreb and Valencia in 2019-20.
● Manchester United have lost their last three away games in the UEFA Champions League, including a defeat to Young Boys on MD1 this term. They have never previously lost four consecutive away games in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League.
● Since the start of last season, Duván Zapata has been directly involved in three of Atalanta’s four goals on home soil in the UEFA Champions League. The Colombian scored a brace against Ajax in October 2020, before assisting Matteo Pessina’s winner against Young Boys on MD2 this season.
● Since returning to Manchester United, Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in all three of his UEFA Champions League appearances (three goals) – the last player to score in four consecutive appearances for the club in the competition was Ruud van Nistelrooy in April 2003 (in a run of nine).
● Davide Zappacosta has been involved in more shot-ending sequences of play than any other Atalanta player in the UEFA Champions League this season (18), while only striker Duván Zapata (19) has had more touches in the opposition box than the full-back so far (10).
● Manchester United striker Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 60 goals in 88 away games in the UEFA Champions League, more than any other player in the competition’s history. The Portuguese has scored in each of his last three away games for the Red Devils in the competition (v FC Porto and Arsenal in 2009 and against Young Boys this season).
