CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Tuesday’s games between VILLARREAL v MANCHESTER UNITED and CHELSEA v JUVENTUS both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and match stats.
VILLARREAL V MANCHESTER UNITED
5.45pm The Champions League returns on Tuesday and what better way to start the action than Manchester United traveling to take on Villarreal. There is no bigger talking point in football at the moment than Solskjaer leaving, and I’m sure there will be some big opinion on the United price here on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have an open market tonight, but United are going to come into the game as favourites as they are trading 2.52 at the time of writing. I feel the general view is Solskjaer had to go – he did a fantastic job during his time at United given the mess the club were in when he came in and although many football fans will say he didn’t achieve much on the pitch, I feel he has done his best work behind the scenes with the academy. I feel the new manager, whoever that is, will actually have an easier job than he did – they will have a better foundation and a much better squad. Of course, that doesn’t mean they will suddenly be able to compete with Man City or Liverpool, but you could see that although Solskjaer loved the club, he clearly lacked the tactical ability of the other top managers.
It will be fascinating to see the reaction from the players here. I genuinely thought Solskjaer had the dressing room behind him with the Spurs win, and you could possibly say the same with Bruno Fernandes telling the fans on Saturday that the players must take responsibility. The media will probably blame Ronaldo, as they always do, but he was scoring the goals that kept things together recently. The reality is Solskjaer didn’t have the ability to take United to the next step, and it’s actually very difficult for a manager to come back from the pressure he was under. This will be a good test for the United players, as Villarreal are having a very average season – they aren’t even in the top half of the La Liga table, and this should be a good chance for a United win. They made very hard work of beating Villarreal at Old Trafford however, and perhaps it’s wise to stay away from the match odds market here. Both sides have been very poor at the back, and over 2.5 goals looks the best play here at 1.82. It’s hard not to see plenty of goals in this game – and we’re sure of mistakes at the back!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQVilMun
● This will be Villarreal’s sixth UEFA Champions League match against Manchester United, more than they’ve faced any other in the competition. The Yellow Submarine are winless in all five previous meetings (D4 L1).
● Manchester United are unbeaten in five UEFA Champions League games against Villarreal (W1 D4) – they have only faced CSKA Moscow and Bayer Leverkusen more often without losing in the Champions League (six games each).
● Since losing 2-1 to Manchester United, Villarreal have won each of their last two UEFA Champions League games, beating Young Boys twice. They are looking to win three consecutive matches in the competition for the very first time.
● Manchester United have failed to keep a single clean sheet in the UEFA Champions League this season, shipping seven goals in their four games so far. It is the most they’ve conceded at this stage of a Champions League season since 1998-99 (also seven), though they went on to win the trophy that season.
● Villarreal have never beaten an English club in the UEFA Champions League in 11 attempts (D6 L5), the most of any side has faced English opponents without winning in Champions League history.
● Manchester United have only won seven of their last 24 away UEFA Champions League matches (D6 L11) and are winless in their last four on the road (D1 L3) since a 2-1 win at PSG last October.
● Villarreal manager Unai Emery has won just one of his eight matches against Manchester United in all competitions (D4 L3) and has managed more times against the Red Devils in the UEFA Champions League without winning than any other side (P3 D1 L2).
● No player has more assists in the UEFA Champions League this season than Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes (4, level with Antony and Leroy Sané), while he has created the most chances of any player (16). Fernandes could become only the second player to assist in five consecutive Champions League appearances for an English club, after David Beckham in November 1998, also for Man Utd.
● Arnaut Danjuma is the only Villarreal player to score more than once in the UEFA Champions League this season (twice), having more attempts at goal (13), more shots on target (8) and more touches in the opposition box (22) than any other Villarreal player.
● Cristiano Ronaldo has netted in each of Manchester United’s first four UEFA Champions League matches this season – no player has ever scored in an English side’s first five matches in a single European Cup/Champions League season. Others to score in first four are Terry Dyson (1961-62, Spurs), Roger Hunt (1964-65, Liverpool), Mick Jones (1969-70, Leeds) and Nicolas Anelka (2010-11, Chelsea).
CHELSEA V JUVENTUS
8pm All the focus will turn to Chelsea v Juventus later in the evening and what a cracking fixture we have here. Chelsea are flying high in the Premier League at the moment, and added another impressive win at the weekend away to Leicester. They still have a three points advantage over Manchester City and given the way they are playing, their fans can certainly dream of lifting the title again. I have to say, they have come up short in the big games looking at their xG figures, but you can’t knock their performances against the average and small teams. Juventus are having the opposite season to Chelsea. Their performance level has dramatically dropped since they sold Ronaldo to Manchester United, and they have almost turned into a mid-table Serie A side. They’ll go into this game sitting 8th in Serie A, and although they beat Chelsea when they had home advantage this season, they have an immense amount of work to do to turn things around this season. It’s odds on they aren’t going to be in the Champions League next season as they are unlikely to finish in the top four in Italy, but they can have a decent run this season as they top the group with four wins from four games.
It was always close to certain Juventus and Chelsea would be top two in this group with Zenit Saint Petersburg and Malmo the other two teams in the group. You couldn’t say that Juventus didn’t deserve to win the first meeting in this group, and we had a very tight game that time around. Given how solid Chelsea have been at the back, it’s hard to see an open game here. I feel Chelsea are priced correctly at 1.7 – they have been a much better side this season than Juventus, and they come into the game playing excellent football and full of confidence. However, I see feel that the home side will have to work very hard to win here. Juventus will be happy with a draw given the situation in the group, and an Italian side playing for a draw are always hard to beat. Under 2.5 goals looks the value call here at 1.85 – I would have that priced closer to 1.7 as I feel this game just screams very few chances and a very close game. I wouldn’t even rule out a 0-0, but the most likely result is 1-0 Chelsea.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCheJuv
● Since beating Juventus in the first ever meeting between the two clubs (1-0 in the UEFA Champions League in February 2009), Chelsea are winless in their last four games against the Italian side in European competition (D2 L2).
● Juventus have won their last two games against Chelsea in European competition (3-0 in 2012 and 1-0 earlier this season), while they could become the first team to record three consecutive victories against Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League.
● Chelsea’s last 10 games against Italian opponents in the UEFA Champions League have seen the Blues record only one victory (D3 L6), beating Napoli 4-1 in March 2012. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in all 10 games in this run, conceding 21 goals in total.
● Juventus have won each of their last three away games against English opponents in the UEFA Champions League, beating Manchester City in 2015 and Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United in 2018. If they win this game, they will become the first team to win four consecutive away games against English opponents in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League.
● Juventus have won each of their last five games in the UEFA Champions League; the longest current run in the competition, along with Bayern Munich. A victory in this game would see the Old Lady establish a new club-record for consecutive wins (6) in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League.
● The average starting distance of Chelsea’s sequences of play in the UEFA Champions League have come 49.8 metres from their own goal; the highest up the field of any team in the competition this season. Indeed, Thomas Tuchel’s high-pressing outfit have also made more high turnovers than any other team (65), with this metric capturing all sequences of play that begin within 40 metres of the opposition goal.
● In the opening four matchdays of this season’s UEFA Champions League, Chelsea have conceded the fewest goals (1), shots (18) and shots on target (3) of any team. They also have the lowest expected goals against total (2.1) in the competition this term.
● Since the start of last season, Chelsea defender Thiago Silva has won 89% of his aerial duels in the UEFA Champions League (32/36) – this is the best success rate of any player in this period to have contested 20+ aerial duels. Indeed, in the Brazilian’s 12 appearances for the club in the competition, Chelsea have only conceded four goals (an average of 0.3 per game).
● Paulo Dybala has been directly involved in four goals in his last two UEFA Champions League games for Juventus (three goals and one assist), while he will be looking to score in three consecutive appearances in the competition for the first time in his career.
● Callum Hudson-Odoi has assisted a goal in each of his last two UEFA Champions League appearances for Chelsea – the last player to make an assist in three consecutive appearances for the club in the competition was Florent Malouda between November and December 2009.