CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Tuesday’s Last 16 games between CHELSEA v LILLE and VILLARREAL v JUVENTUS both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended stats.
CHELSEA V LILLE
8pm The Champions League Last 16 continues on Tuesday night and we have some superb fixtures to enjoy on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! again this week. Although we had some blockbuster fixtures last week, PSG v Real Madrid didn’t really live up to the hype, and it also took a while to see a goal between Inter Milan and Liverpool. Hopefully we see more goals this week! We kick off the action with Chelsea hosting Lille. Chelsea would have been absolutely delighted with this draw, and they are trading very heavy odds on at around 1.34 to get off to winning start. Lille topped their Champions League Group, but they are having a terrible season in France as they currently sit in 11th position. It’s actually hard to believe they won Ligue 1 last season when you look at their results this season – whatever about not being able to beat PSG now after they added the likes of Messi to the side, but to drop all the way to the bottom half of the table is incredible. Their Group was the shock result to be honest, because you would have expected Sevilla and Wolfsburg to get through – instead we got Lille and Red Bull Salzburg.
That being said, Red Bull Salzburg got a result against Bayern Munich last week, so maybe Lille can get a result here! I highly doubt it, however did you notice how negative the away teams were last week; especially Real Madrid in Paris. Taking away the away goal rule is obviously going to have a big impact, and I believe a lot more teams will have negative tactics away from home going forward. It seems certain that Lille will put XI men behind the ball here. I can’t see them getting a result, but it does make the goals and handicap markets interesting. Over 2.5 goals is trading around 1.78 and that looks a little short to me – Chelsea haven’t exactly been banging in the goals for fun lately. They are getting the job done, but they are grinding out results rather than blowing sides away. A classic example was the Crystal Palace win at the weekend. I feel Chelsea can keep a clean sheet here too, and under 2.5 goals allows for a 1-0 or 2-0 Chelsea win. I believe unders at 2.2 offers more value than Chelsea to cover the 1.5 goal handicap – I can see Lille being very negative and this game being a little dull.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCheLll
MATCH STATS
● Chelsea and Lille have met in just one European campaign previously – the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League – when the English side won both group stage matches by the same 2-1 scoreline.
● Chelsea have only lost one of their previous 10 home European matches against sides from France (W6 D3), a 1-2 defeat to PSG in March 2016 which knocked the Blues out of the UEFA Champions League.
● This will be Lille’s ninth UEFA Champions League match against a side from England, and third versus Chelsea. Their other six games all came against Manchester United, with only one of their eight such matches ending in victory (D2 L5), a 1-0 win over the Red Devils in November 2005 thanks to a goal from former Spurs player Milenko Ačimovič.
● English and French teams have previously been drawn against one another on 14 different occasions within the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, with sides from both countries progressing seven times each. However, of the three occasions the English team has played the first leg at home, only one has progressed – Man Utd (v PSG) in 2018-19.
● Only Manchester City (15) and Bayern Munich (14) have won more UEFA Champions League matches than reigning champions Chelsea (13) since the start of last season, who – before last season – had been eliminated from the competition in five consecutive knockout ties between 2013-14 and 2019-20.
● Lille are appearing in only their second Last 16 tie within the UEFA Champions League, and first since a two-legged defeat to Manchester United back in 2006-07, when they lost 1-0 both home and away.
● Chelsea are the first current champions of the UEFA Champions League to progress to the knockout stages not as group winners since Real Madrid in 2017-18, who did eventually go on to retain their title. The last current holders of the competition to be eliminated at the Last 16 stage were Liverpool in 2019-20 (v Atletico Madrid).
● Lille (7) come into this round as the lowest scoring group winners since both Leicester City and Atletico Madrid in 2016-17 (also 7 each). Jonathan David has been responsible for three of those seven strikes, netting exactly once in his last three appearances in the UEFA Champions League; on the day of this game, David will be aged 22 years and 39 days, and should he score, Lionel Messi (21y 155d in November 2008) will be the only non-European player to score in four straight matches in the competition at a younger age than the Canadian.
● Since his first campaign in the competition in 2017-18, Timo Werner (14) has scored more UEFA Champions League goals than any other German player, despite not appearing in the competition in 2018-19. However, 10 of his 14 goals have come in away matches (71.4%), with only Olivier Giroud (78% – 14/18) seeing a higher portion of his goals coming on the road in the competition’s history (min. 10 goals).
● Including finals, Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel has progressed/won 73% UEFA Champions League knockout ties (8/11), with only three other managers boasting a higher such rate among those to have overseen at least 10 knockout ties within the competition – Vicente del Bosque (80% – 8/10), Josef Heynckes (86% – 12/14) and Zinedine Zidane (88% – 14/16).
VILLARREAL V JUVENTUS
8pm Next we have Villarreal hosting Juventus and this should be a cracker. With Chelsea such heavy favourites in the other game, I’m sure there will be a lot of eyeballs on this game – this is the highlight of the night. Although Villarreal had a pretty slow start to the season, they have shot up the La Liga table and they are currently sitting in 6th position. With Barcelona and Atletico Madrid just ahead of them they are unlikely to do much better than 6th but they do arrive into this fixture playing their best football of the season. This is going to be a very tough fixture for Juventus, and I’m sure they will be happy with a draw here and then home advantage for the second leg. Juventus have had a similar season to Villarreal in the sense that they had a very slow start and have gained good momentum over the last few weeks to finally break back into the top four. At one stage it looked like they might not even get a Europa League spot, so they have definitely improved as the season has gone on. I was bitterly disappointed that they couldn’t beat Torino on Friday night though, and they created a poor xG figure too in a very average display. Just when they had broken back into the top four, they go and throw in a performance like that. Luckily for them Atalanta were poor too at the weekend, but they are still only three points ahead of Atalanta now and Atalanta have a game in hand.
When you look through Villarreal’s latest xG figures you can’t help but be impressed. They are creating lots of chances at the moment and scoring goals too. They picked up a 0-0 draw against Real Madrid in their last home game, although Real Madrid bossed that game it was good to see Villarreal manage to keep a clean sheet. Although I agree with the market here that they should be favourites, they are going to have some tough moments against a side like Juventus – I know Juventus aren’t as good as they once were but they are still a top European side. I fully expect Juventus to be quite negative here, and if Villarreal are going to win they are going to have to grind it out. We will have classic Italian tactics from Juve here in my opinion and that does put me off Villarreal a little at 2.54. I feel the match odds market is best left alone here, and under 2.5 goals looks worth backing at 1.7. This is going to be a very cagey affair. Juventus will clearly be happy with a draw and it will be up to Villarreal to make the running – I can’t see many goals here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQVilJuv
MATCH STATS
● This will be the first ever meeting between Villarreal and Juventus in European competition, and only the second time they have faced an Italian side in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League. They eliminated Inter Milan in the quarter-finals in 2005-06, after edging them on away goals (2-2 on aggregate).
● Since the 2002-03 season, Juventus have progressed from six of their eight two-legged ties against Spanish opponents in the UEFA Champions League, including their most recent one – a 3-2 aggregate win over Atlético Madrid in the Round of 16 in 2018-19.
● This will be the fourth time Villarreal have hosted an Italian opponent in the UEFA Champions League, as well as the fourth different side. They have split the results in each of the last three, beating Inter Milan in April 2006, losing to Napoli in December 2011 and drawing 2-2 with Atalanta in September 2021.
● Juventus have won three of their last five away games against Spanish opposition in the UEFA Champions League (D1 L1), beating Real Madrid in 2017-18, Valencia in 2018-19 and Barcelona in 2020-21. Their three victories in the last five is as many as they had managed in their previous 25 away games against Spanish sides across all competitions (D6 L16).
● Villarreal manager Unai Emery has only won one of his six games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (D1 L4), losing each of the last three in a row. Indeed, Emery has seen his side be eliminated in all three of his previous Round of 16 ties – once with Valencia in 2010-11 and with Paris Saint-Germain in 2016-17 and 2017-18.
● Massimiliano Allegri has progressed from four of his previous five Round of 16 ties in charge of Juventus in the UEFA Champions League, with his only elimination coming against Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich in 2015-16. Juve have been eliminated at this stage in the two seasons between Allegri’s spells (in 2019-20 under Maurizio Sarri and 2020-21 under Andrea Pirlo).
● Ahead of the Round of 16 first legs, Juventus pair Federico Bernardeschi (5) and Juan Cuadrado (6) are one of only three teammate duos to have both registered 5+ assists in the UEFA Champions League since the start of last season, along with Bayern Munich’s Joshua Kimmich and Robert Lewandowski and Paris Saint-Germain’s Kylian Mbappé and Ángel Di María.
● Arnaut Danjuma has been directly involved in five goals for Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League this season, scoring four times and providing an assist. This is already the highest combined tally of goals and assists recorded by a Villarreal player in a UEFA Champions League campaign, equalling Joseba Llorente’s haul from 2008-09 (also four goals and one assist).
● Juventus striker Álvaro Morata has scored in two of his last four appearances against Villarreal in all competitions (two goals), including an 83rd minute winner at Estadio la Cerámica while playing for Real Madrid in February 2017 (3-2 win).
● Should he feature in this game, Villarreal winger Yeremi Pino could become just the fourth Spanish player to score in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages as a teenager, after Bojan (2008 and 2010), Cesc Fàbregas (2006) and Raúl (1996). He would also be the first teenager to score for Villarreal in the knockout stages of the competition.
