CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s games between SPORTING LISBON v TOTTENHAM, LIVERPOOL v AJAX and BAYERN MUNICH v BARCELONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SPORTING LISBON V TOTTENHAM
5.45pm The Champions League is back and we have a great Tuesday ahead on Betdaq Betting Exchange. The Premier League clubs didn’t play the weekend due to the passing of Her Majesty, but the police have confirmed that they can cover the games this week. That won’t be a problem here as we start the evening with Spurs away to Sporting Lisbon. Both these sides started their campaign with a win last week with Sporting Lisbon beating Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 away from home and Spurs beating Marseille 2-0 with home advantage. That win away to Eintracht Frankfurt was unexpected for Sporting Lisbon, but this will still be a good test for Spurs. It’s very early days in the season, but Sporting are a little off the pace in Portugal. They are sitting down in 7th, and are already eight points behind Benfica at the top of the table. They recorded a 4-0 win at the weekend, but obviously the between in quality of opposition, and a few weeks ago they were outclassed by Porto in Portugal. I really feel Spurs should be getting the job done here, but they are going to have to grind out a win rather than a smooth win.
Spurs have been fantastic under Conte, and they look a lot more solid this season. The draw away to Chelsea would have felt like a win, but they did have to settle for a 1-1 draw away to West Ham recently. West Ham finished that game with a marginally higher xG figure so there has to be a little worry about Spurs away from home at the moment. As I said above, I think they will grind out a win rather than do anything impressively. The 2.06 is too big to turn down on Spurs in my opinion – I would have them odds on to beat this Sporting Lisbon side who don’t look too impressive. They did well to beat Eintracht Frankfurt last week of course, but their level in Portugal this season has been pretty average – Spurs probably don’t even need to be at their best to win here to be honest.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Tottenham to beat Sporting Lisbon at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SpoTot
● This is the first ever competitive meeting between Sporting CP and Tottenham Hotspur in any competition.
● Sporting CP are winless in all six of their UEFA Champions League matches against English sides, drawing one and losing five against Man Utd (L2), Chelsea (L2) and Man City (D1 L1). They’ve lost all three home games without scoring a single goal.
● Tottenham Hotspur last faced Portuguese opponents in August 2021, winning 3-1 on aggregate against Paços de Ferreira in the Europa Conference League qualifying phases. They have not faced a Portuguese team in the European Cup for 60 years, since losing 4-3 on aggregate to Benfica in the 1961-62 semi-final.
● Sporting conceded 11 home goals in the UEFA Champions League last season, the most they’ve ever shipped on home soil in a season in major European football. They conceded five times in two games at Estádio José Alvalade, as many times as they had in their first 154 home games in major European competition.
● Following a 3-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt on MD1, Sporting are looking to win their first two matches in a UEFA Champions League season for the first time ever. They’ve lost on MD2 in their two most recent campaigns, 1-0 defeats to Barcelona (2017-18) and Borussia Dortmund (2021-22).
● Tottenham Hotspur are looking to record UEFA Champions League wins in each of their first two matches in the competition in a season for the first time since 2017-18 under Mauricio Pochettino.
● Despite winning 3-0 against Eintracht Frankfurt, Sporting CP conceded six shots after a high turnover from the opposition (a sequence of play starting within 40 metres of goal) – at least twice as many as any other team on MD1. Indeed, Sporting CP suffered more high turnovers against (18) than any other side in the first round of this season’s UEFA Champions League.
● Both of Spurs’ goals against Marseille last time out were headers from crosses (both scored by Richarlison), the first time an English side have scored multiple goals in this fashion in a UEFA Champions League game since Manchester City in November 2017 (two v Napoli).
● Sporting’s Marcus Edwards – who played once for Tottenham in the League Cup against Gillingham in September 2016 – became the first Englishman to score for a Portuguese club in the UEFA Champions League in their 3-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt on MD1.
● Richarlison scored a brace on his UEFA Champions League debut for Tottenham in their 2-0 win over Marseille. The last Brazilian to score in their first two appearances in the competition was Marquinhos in 2013, while the only player before this season to score twice in each of his first two appearances was Diego Simeone in 1996.
LIVERPOOL V AJAX
8pm We start the 8pm fixtures with Liverpool hosting Ajax, and what a fixture this is! I was delighted when the police made the announcement that they would be able to let this fixture go ahead. This game just screams goals on paper, and hopefully it’s an entertaining as it could be! Both sides are very attacking, and they aren’t afraid of leaving gaps at the back either. Of course, the market is expecting goals as Over 2.5 goals is trading as low as 1.4 – I couldn’t even put anyone off that bet even at the low odds because it’s hard to see how we don’t have goals here. Liverpool have obviously had their issues in the Premier League this season, but that spilled over into the Champions League last week with a 4-1 loss to Napoli. They were absolutely woeful at the back, and almost looked like they gave up at times such was the defending. Ajax have a 100% record in Holland this season, but that’s to be expected to be honest and they got off to a winning start with an easy 4-0 win at home to Rangers last week. It was great to land a very confident bet on Ajax last week, and I feel they are worth supporting in the market again this week.
I know Liverpool are going through a rough time at the moment, but you just don’t become a bad side overnight. We will see more top class performances from them this season. However, they do feel more than a little short at 1.56 here. They clearly have issues at the back, and while Ajax have lost their best players this summer they are still an excellent attacking side. Liverpool are obviously a fantastic side so I will be keeping stakes reasonably low here, but Ajax tick a lot of boxes here and clearly Liverpool haven’t been at their best this season. I wouldn’t even be surprised to a 3-3 or 4-4 game here to be honest, but whatever the score line I do feel Liverpool are too short at 1.56. I just expect the game to be closer than the odds suggest. The Liverpool lay stands out as the value.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Ajax at 1.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivAja
● Liverpool and Ajax have faced in one previous UEFA Champions League campaign in 2020-21, with the Reds winning both games 1-0 home and away in the group stage.
● Ajax are looking for their first win over Liverpool since December 1966, beating them 5-1 in the European Cup. However, the Amsterdam side are winless in their last five UEFA Champions League games against English opponents (D1 L4).
● Liverpool have only lost their first home match in two of their previous 46 major European campaigns (W35 D9), losing 1-0 to Marseille in 2007-08 in the UEFA Champions League and 3-2 to Udinese in the 2012-13 UEFA Europa League.
● In all European competition, Ajax have only lost two of their last 25 away matches (W13 D10), losing 2-0 to Getafe in February 2020 in the UEFA Europa League and 1-0 to Liverpool in December 2020 in the UEFA Champions League.
● Liverpool suffered a 4-1 defeat on MD1 against Napoli, their joint heaviest UEFA Champions League defeat. The Reds have never previously begun a UEFA Champions League campaign with two defeats before.
● Ajax have won their last seven UEFA Champions League group stage matches, scoring 24 goals and conceding just five. Only Bayern Munich (eight) are on a longer current run of group stage victories than the Amsterdam side.
● Liverpool’s Jürgen Klopp has won all four of his UEFA Champions League games against Ajax (two with Borussia Dortmund, two with Liverpool), only winning more times against FC Porto (5); only José Mourinho (6) has more Champions League wins against Ajax than Klopp.
● Against Rangers last time out, the average starting distance of Ajax’s sequences of play was 52.7 metres from their own goal – the highest up the field of any team on MD1, highlighting the aggressive pressure that the Dutch side put their opponents under.
● Since netting against Internazionale in February, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah hasn’t scored in any of his last seven appearances in the UEFA Champions League – his longest run of games without a goal in the competition.
● The two players to complete the most passes on MD1 of this season’s UEFA Champions League were Ajax duo Calvin Bassey (141) and Jurriën Timber (137). Bassey’s total of 141 completed passes was the most by a player on their debut in the competition on record (since 2003-04).
● Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson was beaten four times against Napoli last time out, the most he has conceded in a UEFA Champions League game for the club. Indeed, the only occasion in which he has conceded more goals in a single game in the competition was against Liverpool at Anfield (5), while playing for Roma in April 2018.
BAYERN MUNICH V BARCELONA
8pm We finish the evening with the highlight fixture of the night as Bayern Munich host Barcelona. It’s fair to say that Barcelona fans won’t be looking forward to this fixture given the recent history between the sides. Barcelona have been all over the place recently on the pitch and off the pitch too, but they seem to have taken a step forward this season. We are less likely to see an 8-2 loss for Barcelona, or indeed the 3-0 losses that Bayern Munich recorded last season knocking Barcelona out at a Group stage. Barcelona are definitely a different side this season, but the jury is still out and this is their first big test. They might have recorded a 3-0 win away to Sevilla in La Liga already, but Sevilla have been very poor this season – they have only managed four points from their opening five games. Barcelona have been banging in the goals for fun though since Rayo Vallecano held them to a 0-0 draw on the opening day of the season. They have won 4-1, 4-0, 3-0, 5-1 and 4-0! Bayern Munich are usually the one recording those score lines, but they have been held to draws in three of their last four games. They were great against Inter Milan last week in the Champions League, but three draws in a row in the Bundesliga is clearly disappointing.
If you look a little deeper under the hood, it’s nothing to worry about for Bayern Munich. They had to settle for a 1-1 draw against Gladbach but finished the game with an xG of 3.23 and should have won the game. Then they faced an impressive Union Berlin side who have been rock solid lately – we laid Bayern Munich that game too – and then the only disappointing draw was against Stuttgart at the weekend. The game was pretty even, obviously Bayern were on top but not nearly as much as they should have been. I am fascinated to see how both sides perform here to be honest – especially considering Barcelona look to be heading in the right direction in the opening games of the season. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.42 – I much prefer Both Teams To Score a couple of ticks bigger at 1.48. I would expect a very open game here with plenty of chances. I couldn’t put anyone off the Bayern win either at 1.84, but Both Teams To Score is the stand out bet for me.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayBar
● Bayern Munich have won eight of their 11 UEFA Champions League games against Barcelona (D1 L2), including each of the last four in a row. Against no side have they won more games (also eight vs Real Madrid).
● Barcelona’s eight UEFA Champions League defeats against Bayern Munich are twice as many as they have lost against any other opponent (four vs AC Milan, PSG and Chelsea).
● Bayern Munich have won all four of their UEFA Champions League group stage matches against Barcelona, winning twice in 1998-99 and 2021-22. The Spanish side have not lost more than twice against any other opponent in the group stages of the competition.
● Bayern Munich have won 35 of their last 37 home UEFA Champions League group stage matches (D1 L1), with the exceptions a 3-2 defeat to Man City in December 2013 and 1-1 draw with Ajax in October 2018.
● Barcelona won 5-1 on MD1 against Viktoria Plzen, scoring more in that match than they’d managed in their previous nine UEFA Champions League games combined (4). They had 11 shots on target, the joint most of any side on MD1 along with their opponents for this match Bayern Munich.
● Bayern Munich manager Julian Nagelsmann has won both of his previous meetings with Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League, winning both games in the group stage last term. Should Nagelsmann lead his side to a victory in this game, he would be the first manager to win his first three matches against Barcelona in the competition.
● Against Viktoria Plzen on MD1, Robert Lewandowski became the first player to score a hat-trick for three different clubs in the UEFA Champions League (Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Barcelona). Lewandowski scored 38 goals in 37 Champions League games at the Allianz Arena for Bayern Munich, one of only two instances of a player playing 15+ games at a stadium and averaging more than a goal per game (also Cristiano Ronaldo at the Bernabeu, 54 goals in 49 games).
● Leroy Sané has been directly involved in 13 goals in his last 10 UEFA Champions League starts (7 goals, 6 assists) for Bayern Munich. Since the start of the 2020-21, Sané leads the way for goals (10) and assists (6) in the Champions League for the club among their current players.
● Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski could become the fourth player to score for and against Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League, after Giovane Élber, Roy Makaay and Lukas Podolski. This will be his first game at the Allianz Arena as an opposition player since April 2014, in a 3-0 win for Borussia Dortmund.
● Thomas Müller has scored eight goals in seven UEFA Champions League appearances against Barcelona for Bayern Munich, three more than he’s scored against any other opponent and three more than anyone has scored against Barcelona in Champions League history (Andriy Shevchenko on five).