TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews PORTO v INTER MILAN and MANCHESTER CITY v RB LEIPZIG both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PORTO V INTER MILAN
8pm It’s a wonderful day of sport on Tuesday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! All eyes will be on the Cheltenham Festival during the day, and then it’s crunch time again in the Champions League as we finish the Last 16 this week. We have Porto hosting Inter Milan and then Manchester City taking on RB Leipzig! These two ties are set up perfectly, despite obviously Inter Milan and Man City being decent favourites to progress. We kick the evening off with Porto v Inter Milan, where Inter take a 1-0 lead into this tie. Despite Inter Milan finishing the first leg with an xG of 2.07, a one goal advantage is probably a fair outcome because Porto had an xG of 1.39. Inter Milan lost again at the weekend, this time away to Spezia which was a very disappointing result – they were long odds on favourites with Spezia not far away from the relegation battle in Serie A. I’m not going to read too much into that result however because the Serie A title race is basically over Napoli are so far ahead, so I’m sure all their focus was on this tie, plus their performance was good. That being said, the top four battle in Italy is very close this season, it’s not like Inter can just ease up, but they were very unlucky to lose – their xG was 3.51! It was just one of those nights.
Porto have won two and lost one of their three games since playing the first leg. The level in Portugal is obviously miles below Italy, but Porto are five points behind league leaders Benfica who got the easier draw possible in the Last 16 against Club Brugge. I’m sure the casual fan will feel this will be a win for Inter, but Porto have impressed in the Champions League this season. They managed to knock out Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen after all. We have an exceptionally open market, and Porto are currently favourites at 2.72 with Inter Milan just ten ticks off them at 2.82. We saw AC Milan do a complete number on Spurs away from home last week, keeping Spurs down to an xG of just 0.51. It will be interesting to see what tactics Inter employ here – I’m sure they will be trying to keep the game as tight as possible. The draw will be a popular bet at 3.55, but I like Under 2.5 goals here at 1.93. I can see Inter sitting back as much as possible, and although Porto have created a lot in their domestic league, this is a different level. You wouldn’t be surprised to see another cagey 0-0 for an Italian side to get through!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PorInt
MANCHESTER CITY V RB LEIPZIG
8pm Next we have Manchester City hosting RB Leipzig, and I’m sure this fixture will take the larger viewing audience tonight! RB Leipzig face a huge task here, but they won’t be too unhappy after the first leg. City were marginally odds on to win over 90 minutes, but Leipzig grinded out a 1-1 draw and although we didn’t see too many chances in the game, Leipzig finished the game with a higher xG figure than they conceded. Trying to keep City down to an xG of just 0.90 with home advantage here will be a huge test, and it will be interesting to see how the German side approach things. They usually like to play a very open game in the Bundesliga, but you can’t really afford to do that against City. RB Leipzig got back to winning ways at the weekend with a smooth 3-0 win over Gladbach; that came after losing a huge game against Dortmund 2-1. Man City have played four times since the first leg tie, and won all four games. They didn’t have a difficult fixture list, and they only conceded once in four games, and that was in the final ten minutes when they were 4-0 up. Obviously we all know how good City are, but there’s no getting away from the fact that they have fluffed their lines at times under pressure in the Champions League, The big question here is how much pressure can RB Leipzig put them under? The market has the home side trading long odds on favourites – City are currently 1.42 at the time of writing, with RB Leipzig 9.0 and the draw is 5.4.
RB Leipzig bring some impressive stats into the game from the Bundesliga – their average xG created is 2.0 and their average conceded is just 1.1. We know there is a huge gulf in class between the Bundesliga and the Premier League though outside of Bayern Munich. City have an average xG of 2.4 in the Premier League, and their average conceded is marginally better than RB Leipzig at 1.0. It’s very difficult to see past a City win here, but at the same time it’s hard to make a major argument that they should be a lot shorter than their current 1.42. I feel that price is fair value, and we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value. I felt these two would screams goals, but the first leg was quite cagey. That can happen in first leg ties of course, but with things sitting at 1-1 I doubt either side will want to be too open early on – especially RB Leipzig. I feel to see plenty of goals here, we will need an early goal – Leipzig would be delighted to get to half-time at 0-0 and go from there. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.6 and that looks a little short to me. I’m going to keep stakes small because there’s so much attacking talent on the pitch, but I’m happy with Under 2.5 goals at 2.52 from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciRbl