TUESDAY LA LIGA: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s matches between SEVILLA v VALENCIA and ATLETICO MADRID v RAYO VALLECANO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SEVILLA V VALENCIA
6pm It’s another busy week from Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We might not have Champions League this week, but we have a full midweek La Liga fixture list to get through – the football calendar has been very hectic lately and it will continue to be as domestic leagues race to get in as many fixtures as possible before the winter World Cup. We have two fantastic markets in La Liga tonight, and we start the evening with Sevilla hosting Valencia. Sevilla finally got a win at the weekend and that was badly needed when you look at their position in the table. That was their first win in six games but their performance was very poor again. They have been playing some very poor football this season, and after a very slow start it looks like their chances of finishing in the top four in La Liga are very close to gone. I know that’s a bit dramatic so early in the season, but they are already way off the pace and it’s not like they are playing great football while not getting the results. Although they managed a 1-0 win away to Mallorca at the weekend, they conceded an xG of 1.84 and didn’t create much outside of the goal – they finished the game with an xG of only 0.20. They come into this game as favourites, but it’s hard to be confident on Sevilla at the moment.
Valencia will be delighted with their start to the season, and they will fancy their chances of getting a result here. They have managed 14 points from their nine games, and at the moment at least they can say that they are in the mix for a European spot – definitely that Europa Conference League spot anyway! They were held to a 2-2 draw at the weekend against Elche which would have been disappointing but they did finish the game with an xG of 3.16. That follows on from creating an xG of 3.0 away to Osasuna, and when you look through the Valencia figures you can’t help but be impressed – especially when you compare them to Sevilla who are playing so badly at the moment. I respect that fact that Sevilla, on paper, are a better side than Valencia and they should be favourites here with home advantage, but I just can’t have them trading as short as 2.36. I’d only have them marginal favourites, and I’m happy to have a Max Lay at the odds. Sevilla aren’t playing well enough to justify being so short.
The Ultra Says:
Five points lay (liability) Sevilla to beat Valencia at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevVln
ATLETICO MADRID V RAYO VALLECANO
8pm We finish the evening with Atletico Madrid host Rayo Vallecano. We have an intriguing market here, and I’m sure there will be some big opinions either side of the book on Atletico Madrid trading around 1.6. Some will say that is a massive price to beat Rayo Vallecano at home and others will be keen to take them on! Although Atletico recorded another win at the weekend, it’s fair to say that their performance was pretty average and they were a little lucky to win. They conceded an xG of over three times what they finished the game with, although it’s worth keeping in mind it was a reasonably tight game – it’s not like Athletic Bilbao finished the game with an xG of 5.0+ it was only 1.45. Perhaps Atletico deserved that bit of luck after two impressive displays in the Champions League against Club Brugge without getting a win. Rayo Vallecano did the opposite at the weekend – they finished their 0-0 draw against Getafe with an xG of over three times what they conceded in a game that didn’t have many chances but they still should have won. They haven’t been playing too badly lately but there is clearly a little gulf in class between the sides here. Rayo Vallecano are going to set up very negatively here and aim for a draw, which can caue Atletico problems but I still feel the home win is worth backing here at 1.57.
The best option in my opinion is the Atletico win, but keep stakes reasonably limited. Atletico haven’t been at their best this season, but they have been playing well enough to get the job done here. Rayo Vallecano are generally a much better side at home compared to away, and they have lost their last three away games in La Liga. They were unlucky to lose 3-1 to Almeria in their last away game, but overall they just concede too many goals away from home. Atletico Madrid have had two defeats at home this season, but they came against Villarreal and then Real Madrid. Both times they played well too, and I’m just struggling to see past a home win here. I expect Atletico to have to work very hard to get the win, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win. From that point of view I couldn’t put anyone off Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 but I’m happy to take the 1.59 on Atletico. As I said above, they should have enough fire power to beat this Rayo Vallecano side who do struggle away from home.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atletico Madrid to beat Rayo Vallecano at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlRay