CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s Champions League semi-final second leg between VILLARREAL v LIVERPOOL including a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.


8pm It’s crunch time in the Champions League Semi-Finals this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We kick the week off with Villarreal hosting Liverpool, and with Liverpool having a two goal advantage after the first leg it’s fair to say that Real Madrid v Manchester City on Wednesday night will be the highlight this week. Villarreal have a close to impossible task here – even drawing in the 90 minutes would be a surprise, never mind turning around a two goal deficit. Liverpool are pretty much certain to go through, the To Qualify price on Jurgen Klopp’s men is sub 1.05.

In the 90 minutes market here, Liverpool are odds on favourites, currently trading 1.76 at the time of writing. After the first leg it’s here to see how Villarreal turn thing one around – they are going to have to chase the game too which just open things up for Liverpool to counter. Even in a close Premier League title race, Jurgen Klopp had the luxury of resting Mo Salah at the weekend too so Liverpool should arrive into this fixture in prime form.

Despite there being a big gulf in class between the sides, it shouldn’t be underestimated that Villarreal knocked out Bayern Munich and Juventus. However, the key aspect of those results is that Bayern Munich and Juventus had to attack after the first leg results. Villarreal were able to soak up the pressure on counter – they basically can’t do that here – don’t get me wrong they will have to soak up pressure at times here too, but they have to chase after this game. If Liverpool want to just sit back and control the game, it’s Villarreal who have to go chasing. That hasn’t been their winning tactics this season.

Although it was surprising to see Villarreal lose to Alaves at the weekend in La Liga, they definitely would have had one eye on this fixture. However, that loss was still a big setback considering Real Betis won the Copa Del Rey and there will be extra European spots available in La Liga with Real Betis taking up fifth position. It’s fair to say that while Villarreal have played great football in the mid-to-latter half of the season, they have bumped into a superb team here. They were playing well going into that first leg with Liverpool – they had created two xG figures of 2.72 and 2.56 after getting a draw against Bayern but they were just totally outclassed. They finished the game in Anfield with an xG of just 0.05.

It will be interesting to see the tactics from Villarreal here in the opening 20 minutes. How early can they attack? Do they have the ability to even attack and keep the ball against this Liverpool side? I feel there’s only one winner here and that’s Liverpool. The 1.76 is a tempting bet and one which I am happy to take – however I’m going to keep stakes limited given the situation. When Liverpool have taken leads into the second legs this season they haven’t managed to win – they lost against Inter Milan and then drew a crazy game with Benfica. That does worry me, but I also feel that Villarreal have to play an open game here and that’s just going to suit Liverpool. On balance a small bet on Liverpool is the best call here.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Liverpool to beat Villarreal at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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● Villarreal have lost two of their three meetings with Liverpool in European competition, although their one victory over the Reds did come in their only previous clash on home soil, in the 2015-16 UEFA Europa League semi-finals (1-0). The Yellow Submarine netted a 90th-minute winner through Adrián López.
● Following their 2-0 victory in the first leg at Anfield, Liverpool could win both legs of a knockout stage tie against Spanish opposition in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League for only the second time – previously doing so in 2008-09 against Real Madrid (1-0 away and 4-0 at home in the Last 16).
● To qualify for this season’s final, Villarreal will have to become only the second team to overturn a two-goal deficit from the first leg of a UEFA Champions League semi-final. Opponents Liverpool are the only side to have lost a first leg by 2+ goals and still progressed from the tie, beating Barcelona 4-3 on aggregate in 2018-19 (0-3 away and 4-0 at home).
● Liverpool are aiming to reach their 10th European Cup/UEFA Champions League final, which would see them become only the fourth side to reach double figures for final appearances, after Real Madrid (16), Bayern Munich (11) and AC Milan (11). The Reds’ current tally of nine is already the most by any English side.
● Villarreal are unbeaten at home in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages, although they have only won two of their seven such games (D5). Indeed, these seven games have seen just 10 goals scored in total, with neither side managing to score more than once on any occasion.
● Liverpool have won all five of their away games in the UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 15 goals and only conceding five. Should they win here, Jürgen Klopp’s side would have played the most away games while maintaining a 100% record by any team in a single European Cup/UEFA Champions League campaign.
● Villarreal attempted only one shot and failed to hit the target in the first leg at Anfield. The last team to fail to record a shot on target across two legs of a UEFA Champions League semi-final was Deportivo de La Coruña in 2003-04, against José Mourinho’s FC Porto.
● Liverpool recorded 22 high turnovers against Villarreal in the first leg (sequences of play that begin within 40 metres of the opposition goal); the most by a team in a knockout stage game in the UEFA Champions League this season. It was also the most Liverpool have ever made in a game in the competition under Jürgen Klopp.
● Villarreal’s Arnaut Danjuma has been directly involved in seven goals in the UEFA Champions League this season (six goals, one assist). The last Dutch player to contribute more in a single campaign in the competition was Arjen Robben in 2013-14 (4 goals, 4 assists), while playing for Bayern Munich.
● Sadio Mané has scored 14 goals for Liverpool in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, including one in the first leg against Villarreal. He is now just one goal shy of equalling Frank Lampard’s record for most goals scored for an English team in the knockout stages of the competition (15 for Chelsea).