CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Wednesday’s knockout 1st leg games between RED BULL SALZBURG v BAYERN MUNICH and INTER MILAN v LIVERPOOL both including a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
RED BULL SALZBURG V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm We have another fantastic night of Champions League action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! on Wednesday! I’m sure all eyes will be on Inter Milan v Liverpool tonight as the headline fixture, but we start the night with Red Bull Salzburg hosting Bayern Munich. There’s no getting away from the gulf in class between the sides here, and Bayern Munich will be heavy favourites to come through this tie. The main danger seems to be Bayern taking their opponents lightly but that’s not the Bayern way. That being said, Bayern suffered a shock 4-2 loss at the weekend in the Bundesliga against Bochum. Once again they created a bigger xG figure than their opponents and you can add it to the list of unlucky Bayern losses this season – it was still a big surprise though and I suppose when you play such an open game like Bayern do you will get these results from time to time. Despite Bayern losing four times in the Bundesliga this season they still almost have the title won and they have been unlucky in every loss when you look at the figures.
It’s easy to see why Bayern are such heavy favourites here given the gulf in class between the sides and I couldn’t put anyone off putting Bayern in their BETDAQ Multiple this evening at 1.37. With Bayern so short in the match odds market, I’m sure most people will be looking at the goals market here and I feel it will be a case of how many do Bayern score rather than will they win. Red Bull Salzburg had a pretty easy Group and they would have been surprised to actually make this round. Sevilla put in some poor performances in their Group and transferred to the Europa League. Red Bull Salzburg have to win here to have any chance, so while their best tactics might be to sit back they can’t just aim for a 0-0 – it’s also highly unlikely they’ll be able to hold on for the full 90 minutes. I do feel they will be quite negative though and that offers some value in the goal market. Although their Group was below the level of Bayern, they did look solid at the back. I expect Bayern to win, but Salzburg can keep the score line respectable and under 3.5 goals looks worth an investment at 1.87 or bigger. That allows for a 3-0 Bayern win too and I feel we have a lot of options to land unders here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 3.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRedBay
● RB Salzburg’s only previous meetings with Bayern Munich came in the UEFA Champions League last season, with the German side winning both games in the group stage (6-2 away and 3-1 at home).
● This will be the fourth time Bayern Munich have faced an Austrian team in the knockout stages of an European competition, while they’ve progressed on each of the previous three occasions (v SK Rapid Wien in the 1966-67 Cup Winners’ Cup and FK Austria Wien in consecutive European Cup campaigns in 1985-86 and 1986-87).
● RB Salzburg have only won one of their last six games against German opponents in European competition (D1 L4), although that did come in the most recent home game against a German side (3-1 v Wolfsburg in the group stage). They have conceded 18 goals across these six games, at an average of three per match.
● Bayern Munich are one of three teams with a 100% record in the UEFA Champions League this season, along with Liverpool and Ajax. Prior to this season, only three sides have ever won their opening seven games of a UEFA Champions League campaign, with Bayern themselves in 2019-20 being the most recent to achieve it (also Real Madrid in 2014-15 and Barcelona in 2002-03).
● This will be RB Salzburg’s first ever game in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League. Only three of the last nine teams playing their first game in the knockout stages have been victorious (Atalanta and RB Leipzig in 2019-20 and Wolfsburg in 2015-16).
● Bayern Munich are unbeaten in their last 21 away games in the UEFA Champions League (W17 D4), since losing at Paris Saint-Germain back in September 2017. This is the longest run of consecutive away games without losing of any team in the history of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League.
● Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski has made 49 away appearances in the UEFA Champions League, netting 37 goals in these games. Ahead of what would be a half-century of away games in the competition, Lewandowski already holds the record for the most goals scored within a player’s first 50 away games in the UEFA Champions League (37, three more than Lionel Messi’s 34).
● RB Salzburg’s Noah Okafor has scored in each of his last two UEFA Champions League appearances at the Red Bull Arena, netting three goals in total. He could become the first RB Salzburg player to score in three consecutive home games in the competition.
● 18-year-old Jamal Musiala has scored twice for Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League, with one of those coming in his most recent appearance (v Barcelona on MD6). Musiala could become Bayern’s top-scoring teenager in the UEFA Champions League, with Kingsley Coman being the only other player to have netted twice as a teenager for the club.
● Bayern Munich’s Leroy Sané has been directly involved in nine goals in six UEFA Champions League appearances this season (five goals and four assists), which is already his most in a single season in the competition. Coming into the knockout stages, only Sébastien Haller (12) and Robert Lewandowski (11) have more combined goals and assists than Sané (9) in the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League.
INTER MILAN V LIVERPOOL
8pm Next we have the highlight of the night as all eyes are on Inter Milan v Liverpool! Inter Milan come into this game under pressure domestically as they have lost to AC Milan and then could only draw with Napoli at the weekend. Just when they got back to the top of Serie A and looked in a very strong position, the league is looking very competitive lately. Unfortunately for Liverpool it isn’t the same story in the Premier League as Manchester City are very comfortable at the top but the good news is the African Cup of Nations is over now and Liverpool have their best players back. Klopp’s squad isn’t the strongest compared to the other top Premier League sides but they coped superbly without Salah and Mane for the time they were gone. This is a fascinating tie – I have to say Inter haven’t won many big games this season. They have failed to beat Napoli, AC Milan and Atalanta recently – drew with Juventus and AC Milan earlier in the season and then in the Champions League they lost twice to Real Madrid. Despite them putting in some excellent performances against the average sides, they’ve yet to win a really big game. You’d imagine they come into this tie under immense pressure too given their recent results in Serie A and Liverpool are rightfully favourites here.
Liverpool have been absolutely superb this season, and I feel they are worth backing at odds against. I’m happy to keep stakes reasonably limited because you have to acknowledge that a draw is a good result for Liverpool so they might not be going all out to win in the final 15 minutes for example, but I feel they should be a little shorter than the current 2.2. Leicester have been very average this season, but Liverpool blew them away at the weekend with a smooth 2-0 win and to be honest they should have scored more. When you think about how impressive Manchester City have been this season – Liverpool have created better xG figures going forward. Their issue is they aren’t as solid as City at the back, hence the positions at the top of the table but Inter will play a reasonably open game here and Liverpool can create more chances. Being away from home and playing counter attacking football will really suit Liverpool here I feel and they have a lot in their favour. If they “needed” to win I’d increase stakes, but I’m happy with two points at the prices. If they do get a draw, they will be very happy to take that back to Anfield.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Liverpool to beat Inter Milan at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQIntLiv
● This will be the fifth meeting between Inter Milan and Liverpool in European competition. Each of the previous four have been in the knockout stages of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, with Inter progressing over two legs in the 1964-65 semi-finals – a year in which they went on to lift the trophy – and Liverpool emerging from the Round of 16 in 2007-08.
● Liverpool have won their last two away games against Italian opponents in the UEFA Champions League, beating Atalanta in 2020-21 and AC Milan earlier this season. This is just one victory fewer than they managed in their first 14 away games against Italian sides across all European competitions (D3 L8).
● In the current UEFA Champions League format (since 2003-04), Inter Milan have been eliminated from two of their previous three two-legged knockout ties against English opponents. All three of these have been at the Round of 16 stage, losing out to Liverpool in 2007-08 and Manchester United in 2008-09, before eliminating Chelsea in 2009-10.
● Liverpool won both meetings with AC Milan during this season’s group stage, including a 2-1 win at the San Siro. The only team to have recorded wins over both AC Milan and Inter Milan in the same European Cup/UEFA Champions League campaign was Spurs in 2010-11, under Harry Redknapp.
● Inter Milan have won their last two home games in the UEFA Champions League, one more than they had managed in their previous nine between November 2018 and September 2021 (D5 L3). The last time they recorded three consecutive home wins in the competition was between December 2009 and November 2010 (a run of seven), during which time they lifted the trophy in 2009-10 under José Mourinho.
● Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp has won 49 of his 87 games in the UEFA Champions League to date. Should his side win this game, he would become just the eighth coach to reach 50 wins in the competition (after Ferguson, Ancelotti, Guardiola, Wenger, Mourinho, van Gaal and Benítez), as well as the first German to do so.
● Inter Milan striker Edin Džeko has scored in each of his last three appearances against Liverpool, netting one for Manchester City in 2015 and two for Roma in the semi-finals of this competition in 2017-18. Indeed, Džeko is one of only three players to have scored in both legs of a knockout tie against Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League, along with Arsenal’s Emmanuel Adebayor in 2007-08 and Chelsea’s Didier Drogba in 2008-09.
● Mohamed Salah could make his 50th UEFA Champions League appearance for Liverpool in this game, while he has scored 32 goals in his 49 appearances to date. Among players to have made 50+ appearances for a specific club in the competition, only Cristiano Ronaldo (51 for Real Madrid) and Robert Lewandowski (36 for Bayern Munich) have netted more as of their 50th game.
● Lautaro Martínez scored five goals in his first five starts for Inter Milan in the UEFA Champions League (in 2019-20), but has since only netted one goal in his last 12 starts. Since scoring against Real Madrid in November 2020, the Argentinean striker has played 697 minutes without finding the net in the competition.
● Since making his first UEFA Champions League appearance for Liverpool in September 2017, Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in more goals following carries (moving 5+ metres with the ball) than any other player in the competition (14 – 10 goals, four assists), while his 10 goals after carries is also the most in this period.