CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Wednesday’s games between MANCHESTER CITY v PSG and LIVERPOOL v PORTO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and match stats.
MANCHESTER CITY V PSG
8pm We’re being treated to a fantastic week of Champions League football, and there’s no doubt that Man City v PSG is the highlight fixture on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Wednesday. This fixture is also going to be my main focus, as I have a Max Bet here. I feel everything lines up for Man City to win, and they are too big at the current 1.7. I’m sure PSG will have plenty of fans after beating Man City in Paris but when you look at the underlining numbers I believe there is only one winner here. PSG might have won 2-0 in Paris, but they were exceptionally lucky to do so – Man City finished the game with an xG 1.71 to 0.57 and it was just an unlucky night for Guardiola’s men. I suppose that’s what happens when you don’t have an obvious striker, but City have been playing some excellent football this season and creating a host of chances. That should win the game here against a PSG side that has been giving away goals for fun this season.
As I said at the weekend, you can see why PSG play such an open game – with their front three why wouldn’t you? They will out score most teams around the world, and that has been happening in Ligue 1. However, when they come up against the top sides those tactics just won’t work. While we could have a very entertaining game here that is end-to-end and packed with goals, I still feel City will create more chances and score more than PSG. We also have a little drama at the club too after Manchester City sacked Solskjaer, seemingly Pochettino is very keen on the United job. I have to say, I have been a little surprised just how keen he is – he has unlimited money at PSG and also the services of some of the best talent in the world. Is that a sign of trouble in the dressing room? He has been criticised for not “winning easily enough” while managing PSG – that would be enough for anyone to be fed up! City bossed most of the game in Paris, have home advantage here and have been playing very well this season – I feel this will be a one way traffic win, but what a fantastic game to enjoy.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Manchester City to beat PSG at 1.7 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQManPsg
● Manchester City went unbeaten in their first five meetings with Paris Saint-Germain in European competition (W3 D2), but suffered a 2-0 defeat in their most recent meeting back in September. The Citizens, however, have won both of their games against the French side on home soil in the UEFA Champions League – 1-0 in April 2016 and 2-0 in May 2021.
● After winning only one of their first 10 away games against English opponents in European competition (D4 L5), Paris Saint-Germain have won two of their last three away games against English sides (L1), with both of those victories coming in Manchester – 2-0 in February 2019 and 3-1 in December 2020 against Manchester United.
● Manchester City failed to score in their last meeting with Paris Saint-Germain (0-2 in September); the first time they hadn’t found the net against a French side in European competition since December 2008, when they drew 0-0 with PSG in the UEFA Cup. They had netted 23 times in 11 games in between these two, averaging 2.1 goals per game.
● Paris Saint-Germain have only won 20% of their meetings with Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League (1/5). Among teams they have faced at least five times in the competition, only against Real Madrid (17% – 1/6) do they have a lower win percentage.
● Only Bayern Munich (17) have scored more goals than Manchester City (15) in the UEFA Champions League so far this season. The Citizens are averaging 3.4 expected goals (xG) per game in the competition this term; since the start of 2013-14, this is the highest per game average by a team in the group stage in a single UEFA Champions League campaign.
● Paris Saint-Germain are winless in their last three away games in the UEFA Champions League (D2 L1), and could go without an away victory in the group stage of the competition in a single season for the first time since 2004-05.
● Jack Grealish has created more chances than any other Manchester City player (11) in the UEFA Champions League. Eight of these chances have been created following a ball carry (moving 5+ metres with the ball), which is the most of any player in the competition this season.
● PSG’s Lionel Messi has scored seven goals in seven UEFA Champions League appearances against Manchester City; the second-most by a player against an English club in the competition, after Messi’s haul of nine goals in six appearances against Arsenal.
● João Cancelo has been directly involved in five goals in his last four UEFA Champions League appearances for Manchester City (two goals and three assists), including a hat-trick of assists in his last game versus Club Brugge.
● PSG forward Kylian Mbappé could be in line to make his 50th appearance in the UEFA Champions League in this game (currently on 49). Should he do so, he will become the second-youngest outfield player to reach 50 appearances in the competition (22y 339d), behind Cesc Fàbregas in March 2010 (22y 331d).
LIVERPOOL V PORTO
8pm Next we have Liverpool hosting Porto, and while everyone will more than likely be watching Man City v PSG, we do have an interesting situation here. When you first click into the market, it’s easy to get exciting seeing the Liverpool price at 1.94. If you remember, Liverpool hammered Porto away from home and landed a nice Max Bet for us at the time. We have to remember here however that Liverpool are certain of topping the group, and it’s highly likely we will see some changes from Klopp here. He loves to rotate his squad, and we do have the busy December run coming up. Next week, we have a full mid-week Premier League fixture list as well as the weekend and Liverpool have a gap to close on Chelsea too. I would assume we’ll see plenty of changes here – Liverpool can lose their final two games and still top the group so I can’t see them risking any of their top players. Porto come into this game sitting in second, but everything is to play for between themselves, Atletico Madrid and AC Milan. Porto only have a one point advantage over Atletico Madrid, and if they both lost tonight that would really throw things open going into the final game.
Porto are having a good season – they top the Portuguese Premeira Liga at the moment on goal difference and as I said, they are in a decent position coming into this game. They’ll be full of confidence, and if they see a second XI from Liverpool they will likely attack the game. They have nothing to lose really – they would have assumed they wouldn’t get through to the next round from this group anyway. We saw last season what a gulf in class there was between the Liverpool first XI and their back-up players – they really don’t have much strength in depth compared to the other Premier League sides. If Liverpool named a strong XI, then obviously this price would be huge value, but the way things are I feel that Liverpool should be odds against. This Porto side is pretty rock solid, and granted they aren’t at Liverpool’s level – they will give the second XI a very good game. I’m happy to have a small lay of Liverpool at odds on. We could see some big market swings on the team news here, so watch out for that trading opportunity.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Porto at 1.94 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLfcPor
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their nine meetings with FC Porto in European competition (W6 D3), with five of those games coming during Jürgen Klopp’s reign (W4 D1).
● This will be the fifth time that FC Porto have travelled to face Liverpool at Anfield in European competition, while they’ve lost three of their previous four (D1) and only scored one goal. That lone strike came in a 4-1 defeat in November 2007 under Jesualdo Ferreira.
● Should Liverpool avoid defeat in this game, FC Porto will be the first side they’ve faced on 10 occasions in European competition without suffering a single loss (currently W6 D3 in nine meetings).
● FC Porto have only won one of their 22 away games against English teams in European competition (D3 L18), however that victory did come in their most recent one – 1-0 v Chelsea in the quarter-final second leg last season. The Portuguese side have only scored two goals in their last nine away games versus English opposition.
● Liverpool have only lost two of their 23 home games in the UEFA Champions League under Jürgen Klopp (W16 D5). Among managers to have taken charge of 20+ home games in charge of a club in the competition, Liverpool under Klopp are one of only four sides to have lost fewer than 10% of their home games (along with Barcelona under Frank Rijkaard, Juventus under Marcello Lippi and Barcelona under Pep Guardiola).
● FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in seven of their last nine games in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League, however one of the games in which they did concede in this run saw them ship five against Liverpool. Indeed, five of the six goals they’ve conceded in their last nine group stage games have been against the Reds (one versus AC Milan).
● Since the start of the 2017-18 campaign – Mohamed Salah’s first as a Liverpool player – the Egyptian has scored 30 goals in 47 UEFA Champions League appearances for the club. Only four of these have been penalties, with Robert Lewandowski (33) being the only player to have netted more non-penalty goals in the competition than Salah (26) during this period.
● Luis Díaz scored in his first two UEFA Champions League appearances for FC Porto in October-November 2020, went nine games without scoring, and has then since scored in his last two appearances in the competition (both versus AC Milan).
● Liverpool pair Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mané have both scored five goals in five appearances against FC Porto in the UEFA Champions League, while both netted in their previous meeting with the Portuguese side earlier this season. Firmino scored a brace after coming off the bench in that game – the first by a Liverpool substitute in a game in the competition since Georginio Wijnaldum v Barcelona in May 2019.
● FC Porto defender Pepe could make his 100th career start in the UEFA Champions League in this game (currently on 99). In doing so, he’d become just the second Portuguese player in the history of the competition to start a century of games, after Cristiano Ronaldo.