CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUARTER FINALS: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s games between CHELSEA v REAL MADRID and VILLARREAL v BAYERN MUNICH both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
CHELSEA V REAL MADRID
8pm The Champions League Quarter-Finals continue on Wednesday and we have another superb night ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. You have to say that we have four top class Semi-Final ties, but Chelsea v Real Madrid was definitely the highlight when the draw was made. Indeed, it’s the only game this week without an odds on favourite. The vibes out of Madrid in the Spanish press at the weekend was that they were happy with the tie and see Chelsea as the easier option compared to Liverpool or Manchester City – you can’t really argue with that given how good Liverpool and Manchester City are but I’m sure Chelsea will be using that has fuel going into this tie. Real Madrid are having a great season – they basically have the La Liga title won already, helped by Barcelona and Atletico Madrid having very slow starts to the season, but they did get badly beaten in El Clasico before the International break. I really don’t agree with the market here – for me Chelsea look massively too short at 2.16 but given the tactics Real Madrid employed away in the PSG tie it’s hard to fully commit to the Chelsea lay here.
Real Madrid showed no interest in showing in the first leg away to PSG, and you can hardly blame them either given we don’t have the away goal rule anymore. They really sat back in that game, and to be honest they nearly pulled off the 0-0 as well only for a last ditch PSG goal. Chelsea suffered a pretty embarrassing defeat here at the weekend with a 4-1 loss to Brentford, but they would have been building towards this fixture – even allowing for that it was very disappointing. Chelsea have had a lot going on off the pitch lately and they have been in the news for all the wrong reasons. That makes this fixture very interesting because they have had a reasonably easy fixture list since losing the League Cup Final to Liverpool. I really disagree with the match odds market here, but Real Madrid are going to be very cagey here and that brings the goals market into my mind too. Under 2.5 goals also looks great value at 1.8, so there’s a choice here between under 2.5 goals and laying Chelsea. I can’t see Real Madrid playing too much attacking football here, so I’m going to go for the under 2.5 goals at 1.8 but I couldn’t put anyone off laying Chelsea either.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCheRma
● This is the second consecutive season in which Chelsea and Real Madrid have met in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League. The Blues could become the first English team to eliminate them from the knockout stages of the competition on multiple occasions, having beaten them 3-1 on aggregate in last season’s semi-final.
● Real Madrid have faced Chelsea more times without ever winning than they have against any other side in European competition (5), drawing twice and losing three times against the Blues.
● Chelsea are unbeaten in their last eight games against Spanish teams in European competition (W4 D4), including in all five that have taken place during Thomas Tuchel’s time in charge (W3 D2). Their last such defeat came in September 2019, losing 0-1 against Valencia under Frank Lampard.
● Real Madrid’s last away win against an English side in the UEFA Champions League was in 2014-15, when they won 3-0 against Liverpool at Anfield. Since then, they are winless in their last five such trips (D2 L3), with the most recent one being a 0-2 defeat against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in last season’s semi-final.
● Since Thomas Tuchel’s first UEFA Champions League game in charge of Chelsea in February 2021, the Blues have kept 10 clean sheets in 15 games; the most of any team. They also have the lowest goals conceded per game ratio during this period, with just seven goals conceded (an average of 0.47 per game).
● Real Madrid have only lost one of their last eight UEFA Champions League games when facing the previous season’s winners (W5 D2), while they’ve won each of the last three without conceding a goal – all against Bayern Munich (2-0 in 2001-02 and 1-0 and 4-0 in 2013-14).
● Real Madrid’s David Alaba could make his 100th appearance in the UEFA Champions League (currently on 99). The Austrian has ended on the winning side in 69 of his 99 games in the competition to date, which will already mark the record for most victories within a player’s first 100 appearances in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (the previous-most was 67, by Robert Lewandowski).
● Karim Benzema has scored eight goals for Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League this season, which is already his most in a single campaign in the competition. If he scores in this game, he would set a new season-best for goals by a Frenchman in the UEFA Champions League (currently eight).
● Since Thomas Tuchel took charge of the team, Christian Pulisic has been directly involved in six goals for Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League (three goals, three assists) – no player has contributed more for the Blues in this period. He scored and assisted in the semi-finals against Real Madrid last season, netting away from home in the first leg and assisting Mason Mount in the second leg at Stamford Bridge.
● Real Madrid winger Vinícius Júnior has generated more shots following carries (moving 5+ metres with the ball) than any other player in the UEFA Champions League this season (20 – 10 shots, 10 chances created). He also leads all players in the competition this term for carries featuring a take-on attempt (28).
VILLARREAL V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm We finish the Quarter-Finals first legs with Villarreal hosting Bayern Munich. Everyone will be expecting Bayern Munich to progress here, but you could have said the same about Villarreal v Juventus in the last round! Villarreal were exceptional in the second leg winning 3-0 away from home. Since then they have played twice in La Liga with two losses which isn’t ideal, they also deserved to lose twice and played very average football against Cadiz and Levante. That has to be a major worry going into this tie. Stopping Bayern Munich is always going to be very difficult, and in my opinion attack is the best form of defence when you play Bayern. I just don’t see how Villarreal stop Bayern from scoring over the 90 minutes, but that being said they were held to a draw in the first leg of the last round against Red Bull Salzburg. Although Villarreal were superb away to Juventus, they have lost their last three away games in La Liga so you have to think if Villarreal are going to have any chance of progressing then they have to win the first leg with home advantage. The market is expecting a win for Bayern tonight, but they are still an appealing price at 1.64. I’m sure there will be some big opinions on that price here.
I’m in the backing camp at 1.64. I’d have Bayern a couple of ticks shorter in my opinion, and it seems an ideal time to take on Villarreal too. Villarreal started the season very slowly but they were playing their best football mid-season and they shot up the table. If you look at their xG figures now though it seems their form has turned a little. They only created an xG of 0.16 away to Cadiz prior to the International break and then lost to Levante at the weekend who are also in the relegation battle. The Bayern xG figures have been incredible this season – you can’t help but be impressed with their stats this year. I know Villarreal will come into this game looking to stop Bayern, and also Bayern can afford to be a little cagey given this is a first leg away from home, but there’s too much of a gulf in class between the sides here for me and I’m happy to take the 1.64 on Bayern.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich to beat Villarreal at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQVilBay
● This will be the second meeting between Villarreal and Bayern Munich after the 2011-12 campaign, when the German side won home (3-1) and away (2-0) in the UEFA Champions League group stage.
● After losing five consecutive away games against Spanish opponents in the UEFA Champions League between 2014 and 2017, Bayern Munich have since gone unbeaten in their last four such away games (W2 D2). The most recent of those came earlier this season, in a 3-0 win away to Barcelona in the group stage.
● This is Villarreal’s first game at the quarter-final stage of the UEFA Champions League since April 2009, when they were eliminated over two legs by Arsenal. Overall, they have only won one of their six games in the competition at this stage or later (D2 L3) – 1-0 v Inter Milan in April 2006.
● Bayern Munich are unbeaten in their last five games when playing away from home in the first leg of a knockout stage tie in the UEFA Champions League (W3 D2) – their last such defeat came in the 2015-16 semi-final first leg against Atlético Madrid, when Pep Guardiola’s side were eventually eliminated on away goals.
● Villarreal boss Unai Emery is set to take charge of his 50th game in the UEFA Champions League (W21 D10 L18). This is the first time he has reached the quarter-finals of the competition, while he is looking to record consecutive wins in the knockout stage for the first time as a manager in the UEFA Champions League.
● Bayern Munich have scored 101 goals in the UEFA Champions League since they were last held to a clean sheet (0-0 v Liverpool in February 2019). Across their last 30 games in the competition, they have averaged 3.4 goals per game, while winning 26 of those (D2 L2).
● Arnaut Danjuma has netted five goals for Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League this season, more than any other player for the club in a single campaign in the competition. In fact, the Dutchman is already the club’s top scorer in the UEFA Champions League, having overtaken Joseba Llorente (4) with his goal against Juventus last time out.
● Robert Lewandowski has scored 12 goals in eight UEFA Champions League appearances for Bayern Munich this season – only three players have ever netted more in a single campaign in the competition (Lionel Messi in 2011-12 and Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013-14, 2015-16 and 2017-18), with one of those being Lewandowski himself in 2019-20 (15).
● Villarreal’s Gerard Moreno has scored two goals and made three assists in just 276 minutes played in the UEFA Champions League this season, recording more direct goal involvements than any other Spanish player in the competition this term.
● Leroy Sané has been directly involved in 12 goals in eight games for Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League this season (six goals, six assists). Since 2003-04 (when this data is available), Sané is one of only two players to have scored more than five goals and made more than five assists in a single campaign, along with Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino in 2017-18 (10 goals, seven assists).