WEDNESDAY LA LIGA: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s matches between SEVILLA v REAL SOCIEDAD and MALLORCA v ATLETICO MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.


6pm The midweek European action continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with two cracking fixtures from La Liga on Wednesday. We kick the evening off with a very open market as Sevilla host Real Sociedad. Sevilla grinded out a 1-1 draw away to Real Betis at the weekend to move out of the relegation zone – saying that seems hard to believe really given a club of Sevilla’s size but there’s no getting away from the fact that they have been woeful this season. I think the worst thing from a Sevilla point of view is that the xG table doesn’t really move them – it basically moves them up one spot after the Real Betis performance from where they actually are (17th) which is hard to believe given they were close to challenging Real Madrid at times for the title last season. Ultimately they fell away towards the end of the season to finish four, but you definitely felt that the top four in Spain were a lock. There’s basically next to no chance that Sevilla claim that fourth spot now this season, not only are they too far behind but they aren’t even playing good enough football. That has opened the door for clubs like Real Sociedad but they have definitely lost out over the last few weeks with two losses and a draw from their last three games.

After the weekend, Real Sociedad were still only one point behind Atletico Madrid and Real Betis in third and fourth though, so they are still very much in the mix. This is a big game for both sides, Real Sociedad need the points in the race for European spots and Sevilla desperately need to start turning things around. Their performance at the weekend against Real Betis was a step in the right direction – they created an xG of 1.68 and only conceded 1.0. Not exactly very impressive, but much better than what we’ve saw from Sevilla this season! It’s no surprise that we have a very open market here, and it’s hard to support Sevilla at the moment. They come into the game as favourites given they have home advantage, but there’s a huge difference in the performance levels of both sides this season. For example Sevilla are conceding an average xG of 2.0 per game which is very poor and they are creating close to 1.0. It’s the opposite for Real Sociedad and for that reason I’m happy to lay the home win here at 2.72. For me the sides should be closer together in the market and the 3.0 is too big on Real Sociedad, but it’s nice to have the draw on our side here.

The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Sevilla to beat Real Sociedad at 2.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


8.30pm We stay in La Liga to finish the evening as Mallorca host Atletico Madrid. After winning on the final day of the season to stay up last season, Mallorca will be delighted with their start to this season. They have managed 16 points from their 13 games which left them in 12th after the weekend. Not a huge amount of points away from the bottom three, but plenty of sides between them and danger. Plus they have been playing decent football so I don’t see them being in the relegation discussion this season. It’s only marginal, but they have been creating more than they have been conceding this season – that’s likely the main reason why Atletico Madrid aren’t odds on to win here despite the gulf in class between the sides. Atletico Madrid will likely finish third this season behind Real Madrid and Barcelona, but they haven’t been at their best this season. They have already dropped plenty of points, and after they dropped more at the weekend they were ten points behind Barcelona who won with Real then having a game in hand because they didn’t play until Monday night football. Not only have they dropped plenty of points in La Liga they also crashed out of the Champions League in the Group stage, not even finishing third to go into the Europa League.

Atletico fans might look down on the Europa League, but it would have been a great chance to win a major European trophy for them if they took it seriously. Mallorca have lost a few times at home this season, their three losses coming against Real Betis, Barcelona and Sevilla but they played superbly against Barcelona and Sevilla. Against Barcelona, they finished the game with an xG figure of nearly double what Barcelona managed and they were desperately unlucky to lose to Sevilla 1-0. They finished that game with an xG of 1.85 and only conceded an xG of 0.16. Again they were unlucky to only draw here in their last home game against Espanyol and while they haven’t had the results at home this season you can see they have been playing rock solid football. As I said above too, Atletico just aren’t firing this season so I’m happy with a small lay of the away side here at 2.22. Mallorca will make life very difficult for Atletico here and I can see the game being closer than the odds suggest.

The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Mallorca at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

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