NATIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Wednesday’s Nations League games including ENGLAND v ICELAND and REPUBLIC OF IRELAND v BULGARIA all with recommended BETDAQ bets.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
ENGLAND V ICELAND
7.45pm The 2020/2021 Nations League ends on Wednesday and we have a wonderful night of action ahead with all the Home Nations in action. Unfortunately for England though this is a meaningless game after losing 2-0 to Belgium on Sunday. Iceland are already relegated too, which was always likely given the strength of this Group and it’s likely we will see a few changes for both sides – with perhaps some debuts given. The markets are expecting a straightforward win for England as they are trading 1.21 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
England made very hard work of beating Iceland in September when Iceland had home advantage. They needed a penalty in added on time. England’s main problem recently has been their goal scoring. They managed three against Ireland in a friendly, but they haven’t impressed going forward in this Group. They are playing OK football, but just aren’t firing. I think under 2.5 goals is worth a small investment at odds of 2.36. Iceland aren’t likely to score, and England could labour in front of goal again.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.36 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEngIcd
NORTHERN IRELAND V ROMANIA
7.45pm In an ordinary world, the narrative here would be that this game was to avoid relegation. In 2020 we actually don’t know what’s on the line as Norway v Romania was cancelled due to Coronavirus cases in the Norway side. That is going to be dealt with by the UEFA Control, Ethics and Disciplinary Body. Common sense would assume that it would be very harsh to award no points to both sides considering it was the fault of Romania, and thus if Northern Ireland won here that would relegate Romania which would be extremely harsh. Perhaps a draw would be the fairest result, and then regards of what happens tonight Northern Ireland would be going down to Group C.
The Nations League hasn’t been a good tournament for Northern Ireland. They lost all four games in 2018/2019 and now they only have one point from five games this time. That point came away to Romania, so clearly there is hope for a result tonight. Personally I expect a very close game tonight, and Romania look much too short at 2.48. They have been beaten by Iceland, Norway 4-0, Austria and conceded three times in a win against Belarus last week. Northern Ireland have been playing solid football – yes they lack a creative spark – but they can get a result against this Romania side.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Romania to beat Northern Ireland at 2.48 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNirRom
ISRAEL V SCOTLAND
7.45pm These two must know each other very well by now! They have been in the same Nations League Group twice, and then played each other in the European Championship Playoff. Scotland came out on top in that one on penalties, and based on everything we have seen thus far there’s very little between the sides. This is a huge game for both sides, with Scotland starting the final night at the top of the Group but only one point ahead of Czech Republic and Israel only one point ahead of Slovakia to avoid relegation to League C.
In all the games these two have played recently, it’s either been a draw or there’s been one goal between them. Israel won 2-1 when the sides met in 2018 when they had home advantage, while the last two meetings have finished a draw with Scotland having home advantage. The draw is much too big here at 3.45 for me, as I would have it closer to 3.0 and I’m very happy to back 3.45!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.45 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQIsrSct
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND V BULGARIA
7.45pm This is a huge game at the bottom of Group B4, with Bulgaria needing a win to stay up. Both sides have been very poor in this Group, but thankfully for Ireland they have drawn an extra game meaning they have the comfort of staying up with a draw tonight. Neither side has won a game in this Group however, and it would take a very brave punter to back Ireland at odds on given it’s been six games without a goal now.
Ireland needed an injury time goal to get a 1-1 draw with Bulgaria when they had home advantage in the first matchday of the Group, and while Bulgaria are a very advantage side – I just can’t have Ireland at this price. Ireland have been very poor for quite a while now, and while there is optimism around the new manager they are really struggling to score. They lack a talented striker and they also lack creativity. They look an excellent value lay at 1.75.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Republic of Ireland to beat Bulgaria at 1.75 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQIreBul
WALES V FINLAND
7.45pm Just like Ireland v Bulgaria is a massive game in Group B4, Wales v Finland is a massive game for all the right reasons. Wales have a one point advantage at the top of the Group going into the final fixture, and along with home advantage they are in a very strong position. A draw will do, so be wary of backing them in-play if it’s 0-0 or 1-1 heading into the final 20 to 15 minutes. These two played out a close game in Finland, with a late Wales goal helping them to a 1-0 win.
Finland have been impressive in the Group though with two wins over Ireland, and Wales will be without manager Ryan Giggs after personal issues. Although Finland must be respected, it has to be noted just how poor Ireland are at the moment and while it was noteworthy to see Finland beat Ireland – we can’t read too much into it. I expect another very close game here, and while Wales at 2.02 is tempting given they should outclass Finland – under 2.5 goals is my selection at 1.55. There hasn’t been many goals in this Group, and with a draw suiting Wales I can see a very cagey game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.55 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWalFin
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