New Orleans Saints (3-4, 3-4 ATS) @ Carolina Panthers (3-4-1, 5-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -3 (49)
Significant Injuries
New Orleans: FB Austin Johnson (questionable– knee), C Jonathan Goodwin (questionable– leg), RB Khiry Robinson (doubtful– forearm), RB Pierre Thomas (out– ribs)
Carolina: S Thomas DeCoud (questionable– hamstring), LB Jason Williams (questionable– hip), RB Fozzie Whittaker (questionable– thigh), G Amini Silatolu (questionable– calf), G Trai Turner (questionable– knee), DE Frank Alexander (out– suspended), DE Greg Hardy (out– suspended)
Recent Trends
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. NFC South opponents
New Orleans is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games
Carolina is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games
Carolina is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these 2 teams
Carolina is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. NFC South opponents
The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-0 in New Orleans’ last 4 road games
The OVER is 5-1 in Carolina’s last 6 games overall
The UNDER is 6-0 in Carolina’s last 6 games vs. NFC South opponents
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. The Saints have been much better this season than their 3-4 record indicates: three of their four losses have come by 3 points or fewer and they’ve scored 20 points or more in every game but one. Last week they produced their best performance of the season, beating the red-hot Green Bay Packers by 21 points, so they seem to be peaking.
2. The New Orleans offense is once again an unstoppable machine, as they have been throughout most of the Brees/Payton era. Through 8 weeks the Saints rank 2nd in both total offense and passing offense and 5th in points scored, with an average of 28.4 points per game. Plus, Brees’ favorite target, tight end Jimmy Graham, is now fully healthy once again after being hampered by a shoulder injury for a few weeks. The Carolina defense will certainly have their hands full on Thursday night.
3. The Panthers just haven’t been very good this season; they rank 24th in points scored, 25th in points allowed, and they haven’t won since Week 5. Plus, three of their four losses have come by 18 points or more, and the Saints are the type of team that can embarrass you (just ask Green Bay). If Cam Newton isn’t razor sharp this game could get out of hand.
Three reasons to back Carolina
1. The Panthers are very comfortable at home against the Saints, as they should be after covering 5 of the last 6 times these teams have met in Charlotte. Of course, the Saints struggle on the road everywhere, not just in Carolina: they’re 0-4 (1-3 ATS) on the road this season and last year all 6 of their losses (including the postseason) came away from home. If you’re thinking about betting on New Orleans as a road favorite you just haven’t been paying attention lately.
2. Cam Newton is having the best season of his career and he’s found a new go-to guy in rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who leads the team with 571 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Newton should have a monster game this week against a New Orleans defense that has allowed more passing yards this season than all but one team leaguewide (289 ypg).
3. The Saints are overvalued after their win over Green Bay last week; a close examination of their season reveals a team that has no business being road favorites in any circumstance. Their schedule has been full of bottom-feeding teams like Atlanta, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay, and before last week they hadn’t beaten a single team with a winning record. They have a leaky defense and an offense that is fragile when it leaves the friendly confines of the Superdome, so backing them on the road against a physical Carolina team makes little sense.
Prediction
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