Defense Gets Results!
I’m really looking forward to doing these picks this week, there are some excellent games in store and I am feeling really confident about a couple of them. I’m really happy with my decision last week to lay Man City against Liverpool, they were absolutely played off the park!
Man United’s Defence the Difference
I am going to start off with one I feel very strongly about, and that is United away against City. I’m looking at the prices right now, and there is great value in Man United to win. If you took this fixture last season, United would have been far less valuable even though they were lower in the league.
When speaking about this Man United team, many people concentrate on the lack of goals scored up front by the likes of Rooney, Martial et al. recently. What I am keen to concentrate on however is how good their defence has been. They have only conceded 9 goals in the league so far this season, which is remarkable especially when you consider this was such a weak spot for them last season. There will be a lot of focus on the Leicester City attack, and in particular Vardy who will be trying to make history, but I think United will be able to shut them out.
On the other side, I don’t think the Leicester City defence is very strong, and I think Rooney, Martial and Mata (if lined up) will be able to create a number of chances, and take a couple of them to secure a victory. I think with a good defensive team in place, if you back them, then more often than not they will get a win for you.
That could put Man United on top of the league for a short while tomorrow, and I fancy them to hold that spot for a few weeks even if they haven’t been playing the most inspiring football going forward recently. This team is set up to be hard to beat, and that is exactly what they have been this season.
Everton Have Too Much for Bournemouth to Cope
I am looking at the prices for this game and I really can’t comprehend how Everton are at such a high price. They have been playing some brilliant attacking football this season, and have been one of my favourite teams to watch. Then you look at Bournemouth, they are bottom of the table right now and I can’t see them coming out of that position for the rest of the season. I have mentioned it on a couple of occasions before that the injuries they have suffered are just too much for them to stick with teams in the Premier League, their squad is too shallow.
Everton have some serious attacking talent in their side, the likes of Lukaku and Kone up front are a really good tandem. Couple that with the trickery of Delofeu on the wing and the midfield ability of Barkley, they will cause Bournemouth a world of bother tomorrow. They simply have too much, Bournemouth got a draw against a struggling Swansea side last week in a game they should have won. They went 2-0 up and let Swansea back into the game, this Everton side is far too good to allow into a game.
Another problem with Bournemouth for me is that they only know one way. Granted their brand of football is good to watch, they try to play the game which is admirable, but to get results sometimes you need to adjust your style, which is something Bournemouth are not willing to do. You will see them being outplayed by Everton tomorrow, and Lukaku is going to bully their back four. I can see a pretty comfortable win for Everton in this one.
Spurs Will Have Enough to Scrape a Draw
You might read that headline and be a little surprised when thinking about the form of these two teams thus far this season. But there is a reason I feel Spurs will just have enough to sneak a draw. They played 7 of their best players in the Europa League this week, it was great for them, they qualified from the group but I was shocked to see such a strong side with Chelsea waiting on Sunday.
Spurs will have traveled 5,000 miles round trip for that game and arrive back with 48 hours to prepare for the game against Chelsea. Don’t get me wrong, Chelsea are there for the taking, that is why I am going to go for a draw rather than a win for Chelsea. They are slowly finding some form (and a couple of results) and are definitely a better side than they have shown this season.
Spurs have a really good young side at the moment, but even for their young legs it will be difficult to have full energy for this game. It is pretty rare that I go for a draw instead of laying a team, but I really think this game has a draw written all over it. Spurs will be tired and happy to take a point against one of the Premier League’s best teams (despite what their results and table position might suggest) and from Chelsea’s perspective, they are sturggling this season and are starting to get some results, so picking anything up against one of the most in form teams the last month or so will be a good result.
Southampton to go After City
Man City got completely outplayed by Liverpool last week when they put them under pressure. Juventus did much the same during the week and both came out on the better side of the game. I think this will be an approach many teams will adopt until City figure out a way to counteract it. This is something I don’t think they can deal with at this stage, so I am going to lay City for the second week in a row.
The players on City have plenty of flair, they are excellent on the ball, but so many of them are really poor off of it. Look at De Bruyne during the week. He got completely burned on a couple of occasions and there was no real effort or desire by him to get back in and win the ball back. Couple that with how lethargic Yaya Toure is off the ball and you have a recipe for disaster when teams get physical with them.
Sure they have the players at their disposal who can grab the ball at any stage and put in the top corner, but when you play up on them and pressure them deep on the pitch they haven’t been creating the same level of chances to do this. Until the work rate of this side improves drastically I can see them dropping some points. It won’t be that every team will be able to stop them from scoring, but I think Southampton are good enough to grab something for this game. Maybe not to win it, so I will lay City again this weekend.
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