And then there were 30…

The top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings converge on historic East Lake Golf Club in suburban Atlanta this week for the Tour Championship, and all eyes will be on the “tournament within a tournament,” as the FedEx Cup champion will be crowned at the conclusion of play and handed a nice, fat $10 million check (well they won’t actually be handed a check, but I’m sure the winner won’t be complaining…). Only five players (Day, Spieth, Fowler, Stenson, Watson) are in control of their FedEx Cup destiny– meaning they finish first and take home the $10 million with a win this week– but all 30 players in the field still have a mathematical chance at winning the whole thing, and if you’re interested in all the head-spinning, mind-numbing scenarios there’s a full breakdown at PGATour.com.

We cannot go any further without mentioning Jason Day. Jason Day, Jason Day, Jason Day. What in the world is going on with this guy? The question is not whether he’s the best in the world at the moment, it’s whether anyone has ever played as well as he is right now. After blowing away the field at the BMW Championship last week, Day has now won 4 times in his last 6 starts, including a major and two of the three “playoff” events. He’s moved beyond the “playing with house money” type of confidence to the “I win because I’m me, and you’re you” brand. He hits shots that Spieth could only dream about. He has the soft hands and feel with the putter that Rory will never have. Maybe I’m getting a little carried away here, but have you been watching this guy play??? Where’s the weakness? If you don’t think he’s going to win this week, what do you base that on other than “well, he can’t win ’em all”?… You sure about that?

Day has snagged the top spot in the world rankings but it’s up for grabs this week, and both McIlroy and Spieth would surely love to reclaim the throne. Rory showed real signs of life at the BMW– if it wasn’t for Day lapping the field his 4th-place finish would’ve drawn more attention. And Spieth finally seemed to bust out of his mini-slump by finishing 13th, but do you have confidence in either one of those guys besting Day over four rounds at East Lake this week? I sure don’t.

Have I tipped my hand here? I guess I have. Well you can’t roll with the long odds every time, can you? Here are this week’s selections:

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

Jason Day (4.8)- Picking the odds-on favorite sort of seems like waving the white flag, doesn’t it? We always want to demonstrate how smart we are by nailing the 45/1 shot that others just didn’t see coming. If you pick a favorite and he wins, well, he was supposed to win, and if he loses you’re not only an idiot, but a cowardly idiot (there’s some dime-store ‘tipster’ psychology for you). I understand the way that works, but I can’t go against what I really believe, and I believe that backing Jason Day at 4.8 to beat 29 guys at East Lake this week is the right move. I shouldn’t even have to mention that he finished 4th in this event last year or that he ranks in the top-5 on the PGA Tour in both driving distance and strokes gained putting (last I checked, when you hit it further and putt better than everyone else, it’s a good sign). If you’ve watched any golf over the last six weeks you know that it’s more than stats: Day is the best there is right now, and he knows it.

Dustin Johnson (20.0)- Johnson feels like he’s coming in under the radar this week despite three top-10 finishes in his last four starts and a second-round 62 at the BMW last week. I think some people have lost a little faith in him after watching him wilt under Major Championship pressure one too many times, but he’s still one of the very best in the world and he plays well at East Lake, finishing 5th and 10th in his last two appearances at this event (2013, 2012). Johnson is a good value at the current price.

Robert Streb (102.0)- Streb has been incredibly consistent this summer, notching ten top-10s in his last 13 events. He’s flashed the ability to contend, too, as he lost the Greenbriar Classic in a playoff and finished 5th at the WGC-Bridgestone. He’s coming off a final-round 67 at the BMW Championship last week (where he finished 23rd) and has now shot par or better in 21 of his last 23 competitive rounds, so current form is not an issue. As a matter of fact, the only issue seems to be that he’s never won an event of this magnitude, but everybody’s got to start somewhere, right? At better than 100/1, I’m willing to see if Streb can best 29 other players.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Paul Casey (1.91) vs. Brooks Koepka (1.91)

I really like Koepka but he hasn’t been playing well lately, missing the cut in two of his past three events and finishing 49th at the BMW last week. Casey, on the other hand, has finished in the top-30 four times in his last six starts and nearly won the Wyndham Championship a month ago. He also led the field in proximity to the hole at the BMW and finished 4th in his last appearance at East Lake (2010). I like his chances against the young Floridian. Recommendation: Casey at 1.91

Henrik Stenson (1.91) vs. Rickie Fowler (1.91)

Fowler has had a career year and he’s playing some great golf at the moment, but I’d find it really difficult to back any player against Henrik Stenson this week whose name isn’t Jason Day. Stenson finished 2nd in each of the first two “playoff” events and 10th last week, giving him five top-10s and three runner-up finishes in his last seven starts. Plus, he’s a former champion at East Lake, winning this event just two years ago. Recommendation: Stenson at 1.91


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