Not a single golf shot has been struck in the 115th U.S. Open Championship, and yet we already know who the star of the show is going to be. Chambers Bay, a public course in Washington state that was opened just eight years ago, has been discussed, dissected, debated, and frequently derided over the past few days, and I have a feeling the golf course will continue to be the main story throughout the week. Is that a good thing, or not?
“Inventive” is how Jordan Spieth described it. Jason Day went with “different.” Ryan Palmer, feeling a bit less charitable perhaps, simply remarked “put your quarter in the machine and go for a ride.” Saying that the players have “mixed” feelings about Chambers Bay is probably putting it kindly. Some of the course’s quirkiness– the fact that many tee boxes are intentionally on slopes, the circus-like mounds in some of the greens, the 100-car trains thundering through the course, often just a few yards from the action– leave it open to being viewed as a hokey, over-the-top creation of an architect (Robert Trent Jones II) that values “uniqueness” over quality. And clearly, this is how some players in the field see Chambers Bay.
For his part, USGA executive director Mike Davis isn’t downplaying the quirkiness. On the contrary, he’s spoken in giddy tones about how players who hadn’t seen the course prior to this week “won’t be winning the U.S. Open.” It’s anybody’s guess how Davis and his team will set up the course from round-to-round– Chambers Bay measures over 7,900 yards (!) from all the way back, but most think it will play between 7,200-7,600 for the tournament. Both the 1st and the 18th holes can play as par 4s or par 5s, and Davis has said that they’ll alternate– when Hole 1 is a par 4, Hole 18 will be a par 5, and vice-versa (the course will play as a Par 70 all four rounds). There will be other oddities as well, such as a par 3 that plays over 100 feet downhill from an elevated tee box, yet actually plays slightly uphill from other tee boxes. It’s anybody’s guess what the course will look like come Thursday morning.
So… where does that leave us as bettors? I mean, what sort of player should we be looking at this week? Normally, we know exactly what to look for in a U.S. Open– the straight-hitting “grinder” with a reliable putter. This week, though, the fairways are wider than any U.S. Open in recorded history and the rough is patchy, with some of it horribly penalizing and some of it wispy and not as challenging. The course seems to be better suited for an Open Championship than a U.S. Open, and, like an Open Championship, the unpredictable Puget Sound weather promises to be a major factor.
A few of the guys, most notably Rory McIlroy and Jason Day, have said that they think the longer players will be at a big advantage, but without knowing just how the course is going to be set up it seems a bit risky to declare this a “bombers-only” week. If it turns out to be windy and rock-hard, for instance, we may see a crafty old veteran sneak up the leaderboard– someone like Miguel Angel Jimenez (380.0), perhaps?– or a player who’s well-versed in links golf. This could be the most “un-American” U.S. Open we’ve seen in several years… the “target golf” will have to wait until next week, it appears.
McIlroy is the favorite at BETDAQ at 9.0, and if he gets the job done this week everyone should be fairly happy, because BETDAQ IS OFFERING COMMISSION BACK ON A MCILROY VICTORY! Will he do it, though? The odds are a bit short for my liking, even for the best player in the world, and Rory hasn’t exactly displayed good form in his past two tournaments… unlike your favorite tipster (ahem, ME), who has been seeing things very well over the last couple of weeks. For what it’s worth, I halfway expect a complete surprise this week– some relative no-name with limited credentials left as the last man standing, a’la Lucas Glover, Michael Campbell, Steve Jones, etc. It may not turn out that way, though, and there are plenty of “name” players out there with odds that are long enough to tempt. Here are my suggestions:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Henrik Stenson (31.0)- Stenson is long, he’s got an underrated short game, and he’s proven repeatedly over the last couple of years that he’s not afraid to rise to the occasion in the bigger events. He’s played well lately, finishing 13th in the Nordea Masters two weeks ago and 17th at The Players last month, and he’s spent the last two weeks at Chambers Bay, so he should have a good feel for the course by now. A great value at the current price.
Ryan Moore (86.0)- Moore was born right up the road in Tacoma, and by his own estimation he’s played Chambers Bay over 50 times. That alone should give him a slight leg up on the field, especially if course knowledge is as critical this week as USGA head Mike Davis believes it is. Moore has made 9 of his past 10 cuts on Tour and he showed flashes of greatness in his last event, finishing 18th at The Memorial despite shooting 147 over the weekend. And though he’s never won a Major, he did win nearly every significant amateur tournament there is, so he’s shown the ability to play his best golf when it matters most. I think Moore’s got a better shot this week than his odds would indicate.
Ian Poulter (102.0)- While he may not be everyone’s favorite player (I’ve met many more haters than fans, haven’t you?), Ian Poulter always seems to play well in the Majors and he’s been playing some great golf over the past several weeks, finishing in the top-30 in 6 of his last 7 PGA Tour events. With plenty of experience on links courses and an undying (almost comical) belief in himself, I think Poulter is a great under-the-radar, longshot bet this week. Throw a couple of bucks at him and see what happens.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Phil Mickelson (1.91) vs. Justin Rose (1.91)
Mickelson hasn’t had a great year, that’s no secret, but he’s shown signs of life lately (last Sunday, anyone?) and he’s one of the only players in the field who has unabashedly praised Chambers Bay this week. Does that mean you should bet on him to beat Justin Rose, a man who is playing the best golf of his career and has had great success on links-style courses in the past? I don’t think so. Back the better player, not the bigger name. Recommendation: Rose at 1.91
Rory McIlroy (1.8) vs. Jordan Spieth (2.0)
While McIlroy would seem to have the advantage at Chambers Bay because of his prodigious length, Spieth actually has competitive experience on the course (though it wasn’t a particularly good experience) and his caddy is quite familiar with the place, having worked there periodically before joining up with Spieth. Plus… am I the only one who’s just a bit concerned about the state of Rory’s game, considering the last two times we’ve seen him he’s been missing cuts? It seems like most of the media has glazed over McIlroy’s recent struggles, treating him as the favorite and acting as if he hadn’t played since his win at the Wells Fargo. I’m not so easily convinced, especially when we’re talking about him beating Spieth, a guy who just seems to always play well (one missed cut, eight top-5 finishes in his last 13 events). Recommendation: Spieth at 2.0
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