It’s been a fascinating three days of golf at Chambers Bay and we’re set up for quite a Sunday, with four players currently tied for the lead and another four sitting just three strokes behind. There aren’t many surprises in the overall market– co-leader Jordan Spieth is the favorite at 3.25, followed by Dustin Johnson (4.2) and the supposedly courageous Jason Day (6.0) (you’ll have to excuse me if I think Day may be playing up his illness just a bit– I’ve actually had a bad case of vertigo, and you can’t even walk across a room. There’s simply no way you could play golf unless it was an extremely mild case, and the fact that Day looks totally normal swinging the golf club tells you all you need to know. Bit of a drama queen situation here I believe, though I know that’s not the popular narrative…). If you’re feeling bold you may want to have a look at Louis Oosthuizen (24.0) or Shane Lowry (37.0), two players who lurk just three behind the lead and have been very impressive tee-to-green this week.
Of course, your bets in the overall market could all be soured by one hot round from the wrong guy, so if you’re like me you’ll be very involved in the final round two-balls today. BETDAQ has them all covered, naturally, and I’ve picked out a few of my favorites:
Chris Kirk (2.02) vs. Ben Martin (2.24)
Martin took 17 strokes on the par-5s yesterday, which is a major problem when there are only two par-5s on the golf course. It was part of a stunning 86 from a man who was threatening the lead 24 hours ago, and now we’re left to wonder how he’s going to bounce back from that. Count me as one who has faith in young Mr. Martin– he’s been terrific this year and he seems to have that “grinder” type of mentality, so I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t give today’s round his full attention. Kirk’s ball-striking has been shaky all week. Recommendation: Martin at 2.24
Thomas Aiken (1.73) vs. Brian Campbell (2.36)
Brian Campbell, an amateur who just finished his senior season at the University of Illinois, played some fabulous golf over the first two days before running in to a little trouble yesterday, and regardless of what happens today he should absolutely be lauded for his play this week. That being said, he’s an amateur and this is a Major Championship Sunday. I’ll take my chances with seasoned South African pro Thomas Aiken, who has played very well on the European Tour this year and finished 26th at The Memorial two weeks ago. I believe the oddsmakers have given Campbell an undue amount of respect here. Recommendation: Aiken at 1.73
Francesco Molinari (1.7) vs. Charlie Beljan (2.88)
Molinari is having a great year and he hung tough yesterday after bogeying four of his first five holes, but the length of Chambers Bay really makes things difficult for him and I’m just not sure he should be such a commanding favorite over Charlie Beljan, a man who has looked very comfortable this week. Beljan played a really clean round yesterday, making just two bogeys en route to a 69, and he made just two bogeys in Round 1 as well. He’d be right in the thick of things if it weren’t for two double-bogeys of Friday, and a solid round today would go a long way toward solidifying his status on Tour (currently 133rd in FedEx points). Molinari is the more accomplished player, but I think Beljan is a good value here at nearly 2/1 on your money. Recommendation: Beljan at 2.88
JB Holmes (2.06) vs. Shane Lowry (2.16)
I’ve really been impressed with Lowry this week, and maybe I should have seen it coming: he a great ball-striker with plenty of experience on links-style courses (I know Chambers Bay isn’t a true links, but it certainly has that feel to it), and his occasional weakness– putting– doesn’t hold him back as much as usual on this course because the shoddy condition of the greens makes it difficult for anyone to get hot with the putter. J.B. Holmes has also benefitted from putting being slightly de-emphasized, and either one of these men could be left standing with the trophy tonight if things shake out properly. I have a little more faith in Lowry, though, probably because I’ve seen the Sunday fade one too many times from Holmes. His Sunday struggles aren’t just a mirage, either– Holmes has shot lower on Sunday than Saturday just twice in his last nine opportunities. Recommendation: Lowry at 2.16
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