Washington Redskins (2-5, 2-5 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-1, 5-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -10 (48.5)
Significant Injuries
Washington: QB Robert Griffin III (questionable– ankle), CB Tracy Porter (questionable– hamstring)
Dallas: DE Jack Crawford (out– calf), OT Doug Free (out– foot)
Recent Trends
Washington is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win
Washington is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. NFC opponents
Washington is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. NFC East opponents
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win
Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday night games
The OVER is 6-2 in Washington’s last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 8-2 in Dallas’ last 10 games following a win
The OVER is 4-1 in Dallas’ last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Washington
1. 10 points is just an absurd number to give a team like Washington, who won last week and have only lost by 12 points or more once all season. Plus, the Redskins always outperform expectations against the Cowboys, covering in 7 of the last 8 meetings between the two teams.
2. The Redskins appear to have temporarily solved their quarterback problem, as Colt McCoy came into last week’s game against Tennessee and led the ‘Skins to a come-from-behind win by completing 11 of his 12 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. A smart, veteran quarterback is the primary thing that Washington has lacked this season– they would’ve won at least 2 of the games that they lost if not for poor quarterback play– and now they seem to have found the guy.
3. Washington may be the first team in NFL history to lose 5 of their first 7 games despite ranking in the top-7 in both total offense and total defense. They’re simply better than people realize, as evidenced by the double-digit number in this game. A Redskins bet is the only sensible play.
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. The Cowboys have steamrolled through the league this season, winning 6 consecutive games thanks to a top-5 offense and a defense that’s better than anyone thought it would be. This week they face a last-place Washington team that will be starting a 3rd-string quarterback. This is a total mismatch, and the 10-point number becomes a non-issue when you realize that 2 of Dallas’ 3 home wins this season have come by 10 points or more.
2. Tony Romo is having a great year but he’s currently the 2nd option in the Dallas offense thanks to the play of running back DeMarco Murray, who leads the league in rushing and has indisputably been the NFL’s best tailback this season. The Washington defense is better against the pass than the run– they surrender over 100 rushing yards per game– so this is a great matchup for Murray and the Dallas offense.
3. The Redskins have covered just twice in their last 9 road games, they rank 23rd or worse in both points scored and points allowed, and they lost by 51 combined points in their three games leading up to last week’s win over the lowly Titans. They are one of the very worst teams in the NFL, and any pro-Washington argument here must begin and end with “Boy, that’s a lot of points”. Frankly, that’s just not good enough.
Prediction
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