HSBC CHAMPIONS PREVIEW: World-class golf returns to China this week, as an elite 78-man field will tee it up in the HSBC Champions at Sheshan International Golf Club in Shanghai. This is the fifth time in the past six years that this tournament has been held at Sheshan, a long-hitter’s paradise that was conquered by Bubba Watson last year and Dustin Johnson in 2013 (though in fairness, Tim Clark was the runner up in ’14, losing in a playoff to Bubba, so it’s not as if those who don’t possess tremendous length off the tee can’t compete). Because this is the final WGC event of the year (complete with an $8.5 million purse) an incredibly strong field is on hand, with the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson, and Adam Scott scheduled to compete.
I say “scheduled” because one prominent member of that group– none other than World No. 3 McIlroy– has contracted a case of food poisoning after eating a bad club sandwich (a club sandwich in China? you sure that’s “chicken”??) and was forced to withdraw from Wednesday’s pro-am. Rory still plans on giving it a go and he’s currently the favorite at BETDAQ (7.8), but I don’t feel too good about investing in a guy who’s likely to spend all night on the toliet– or worse– even if that guy is McIlroy, who has never finished worse than 6th in four appearances at Sheshan. Plus, this is an incredibly talented field that features many world-class players with generous prices attached to their names, so I’m shying away from the super-short odds this week. Here are my selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Henrik Stenson (24.0)- Stenson seems to be a bit of a forgotten man these days when we’re discussing the very best players in the world, but he’s repeatedly shown the ability to contend in professional golf’s biggest events, most recently finishing 2nd in the PGA Tour Championship in late September. He returned to competition last week with a solid but cautious four rounds in Kuala Lumpur, shooting 7-under par to finish 47th. With his length off the tee he profiles as an ideal pick at Sheshan and indeed he’s played some good golf in this tournament over the past few years, shooting 67 or better in three of his past six competitive rounds here. He’s been unable to string four rounds together in the past, but he obviously knows his way around the course and confidence shouldn’t be an issue at a place where he’s logged so many low rounds. Really think Stenson is a great value at the current price.
Shane Lowry (48.0)- Anybody will tell you that driving the ball well is the key to success at Sheshan, and on such courses I always look at Shane Lowry, who is a great driver of the golf ball and is also very aggressive off the tee, often hitting the driver when many others would not (that could come in handy on Sheshan’s closing stretch…or it could backfire. I’m going with the former). Lowry’s in great form at the moment, finishing 2nd at the British Masters a few weeks ago and 8th in last week’s Turkish Airlines Open, so I think he’s a near-lock to improve on his previous two performances in this event, when he placed 34th (’14) and 29th (’09). If he were to win this week he would join Tiger Woods as the only two players to capture back-to-back WGC titles– remember, Lowry was victorious in August’s WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. I think the Irishman’s a good bet at nearly 50/1.
Hiroshi Iwata (355.0)- You may not feel good about Hiroshi Iwata’s chances of beating the likes of Spieth and McIlrory this week, but let me tell you: at a ridiculous price like 355.0, Iwata is a must-bet. This guy is a world-class player who made some noise in this year’s PGA Championship, where he carded a second-round 63 (the low round of the week) and went on to finish 21st. He’s clearly comfortable in this event, too, shooting 10-under 278 last year to finish third, by far his best career showing in a tournament of this caliber. Plus, he’s playing well at the moment, as he earned his PGA Tour card last month with an 18th-place finish at the Web.com Tour Championship. Take my advice: clean out your car, look under the couches… scrape up a few bucks and put it on this guy. You might strike gold.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Rickie Fowler (1.8) vs. Adam Scott (2.0)
Scott played really well in Malaysia last week, finishing second, but he looked lost with the standard-length putter just a few short weeks ago, and I’m not yet ready to trust him on the greens. Fowler seems to rise to the occasion in events like this and he finished 3rd here last year, so he obviously feels comfortable at Sheshen. Recommendation: Fowler at 1.8
Louis Oosthuizen (1.91) vs. Ian Poulter (1.91)
Poulter’s win in this tournament, back in 2012, came on the year that the event was held at Mission Hills, but Poulter loves Sheshen as well, coming in 2nd here in 2013 and finishing no worse than 13th in his last four starts. Oosthuizen hasn’t played since September, but really this bet is more about Poulter: he’s an absolute cash register at the HSBC. Recommendation: Poulter at 1.91
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