Middle Sunday is always a day of rest at Wimbledon, giving the courts and players time to heal and allowing us as bettors the chance to take stock of what has happened over the past week and make any needed adjustments to our pre-tournament evaluations. After all, the best is yet to come– this is going to be a fantastic week of tennis, and opportunity abounds.
BETDAQ’s markets have been fairly lively and they promise to be even more so in the coming days. With that in mind, here’s a quick look at both the men’s and women’s outright markets as they stand now, on the eve of the Round of 16, as well as a few tips for Monday’s action:
(click here for a look at out pre-tournament preview)
MEN’S OUTRIGHT
Djokovic 2.2
Murray 3.65
Federer 7.2
Over the past six days it has become increasingly clear that on the men’s side it’s really Novak Djokovic and everyone else. The Djoker has been absolutely dominant in his three victories, never dropping more than four games in any set despite facing three quality opponents in Kohlschreiber, Nieminen, and Tomic. We recommended him pre-tournament at 2.28 and I see absolutely no reason to back off that prediction. Someone taking three sets off him seems almost unfathomable at the moment (though, in fairness, you probably could have said the same thing before the French final– and we did).
On the flip side, I’d be a bit concerned if I were an Andy Murray backer. The Scot had some trouble with Andreas Seppi yesterday, dropping a set and losing six consecutive games at one point. He needed treatment on his right shoulder during the fourth set, and he revealed after the match that his shoulder is slightly bothering him when he serves. This does not look or sound like a man who is ready to beat Djokovic.
Stan Wawrinka (12.0) has picked up right where he left off at the French, rolling through all three of his matches in straight sets, while our pre-tournament “longshot” selection, Tomas Berdych (49.0), is still hanging around but looking a little shaky, and his odds haven’t shortened yet.
Recommendations: BACK Djokovic at 2.22, LAY Murray at 3.95
WOMEN’S OUTRIGHT
S. Williams 2.26
Sharapova 7.4
Radwanska 12.0
The women’s side saw some drama yesterday when defending champion Petra Kvitova was ousted by Jelena Jankovic in an exciting three-setter. While Jankovic (35.0) isn’t viewed as a serious threat to win the tournament, she displayed some of her trademark grittiness in outlasting Kvitova and could be a dangerous underdog once again in her upcoming match against Agnieszka Radwanska, as she beat Radwanska the last time they met.
Serena Williams (2.22) is still the clear favorite, though her aura of invincibility took a bit of a hit on Friday in a three-set thriller against Britain’s Heather Watson, as Watson was just two points from victory at one time and really pushed Serena to the brink. While I don’t feel great about advising anyone to lay Serena at 2.4, I’m certainly not tripping over myself to back her at 2.26.
One player who seems to be on top of her game is Maria Sharapova, who was our pre-tournament pick at 9.4 despite her long list of Wimbledon disappointments (notably absent from that list: 2004). Now trading at 7.4, Sharapova has easily outclassed all of her opponents thus far and her upcoming road is fairly friendly, as she’s a heavy favorite over Zarina Diyas on Monday and will then face the winner of Vandeweghe/Safarova. Though her head-to-head record against Serena is less-than-inspring, she wouldn’t have to cross that bridge until the final, so I think she’s still a decent value at 7.4.
Recommendations: BACK Sharapova at 7.4, BACK Muguruza at 25.0
MONDAY MATCHES
Nick Kyrgios (1.87) vs. Richard Gasquet (2.06)
This is a rematch of last year’s classic match that saw a then 19-year old Kyrgios stave off nine match points en route to a five-set victory over the veteran Gasquet. The flamboyant Kyrgios did it again on Friday, upsetting 7-seed Milos Raonic 5-7, 7-5, 7-6 (3), 6-3 and delighting the crowd in the process. Things seem to be rolling for the young Aussie… and here comes Gasquet, who has not lost a set in this tournament and who surely still has a bitter taste in his mouth from last year’s defeat. I enjoy backing experienced guys with scores to settle. Recommendation: Gasquet at 2.06
Agnieszka Radwanska (1.44) vs. Jelena Jankovic (3.05)
As we mentioned above, Jankovic was brilliant in pulling off the upset over defending champion Petra Kvitiva on Saturday, rallying back after losing the first set and proving again that she’s second to none when it comes to toughness and competitiveness. Also mentioned above is the fact that she beat her next opponent, Agnieszka Radwanska, the last time they met. What isn’t mentioned is that Radwanska had won their five previous matches, and that she (Radwanska) lost a grand total of 12 games in her three matches last week (all straight-set wins, obviously). Recommendation: Radwanska at 1.44
Caroline Wozniacki (1.59) vs. Garbine Muguruza (2.58)
Wozniacki is ranked 5th in the world and she had very little trouble last week, winning all three of her matches in straight sets. The Round of 16 has always haunted her at Wimbledon, though, as she’s come this far four times but has never advanced beyond this stage. Things won’t be getting any easier against the red-hot Garbine Muguruza, a 21-year old Spaniard who beat Serena Williams at the French Open last year and vanquished 10-seed Angelique Kerber, a former semifinalist, on Saturday. Muguruza advanced to the quarterfinals of the French last month, so she shouldn’t be rattled by the stage, and she’s beaten Wozniacki twice in three career attempts. Plus, she’s a big, strong player who has yet to realize her full potential– with the way she can control points, the sky’s the limit. Not only am I backing her in this match, I think I’ll have a little nibble in the outright market as well, where she’s currently trading at 25.0. Recommendation: Muguruza at 2.58
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