WORLD CUP WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s four World Cup games between AUSTRALIA v DENMARK, TUNISIA v FRANCE, POLAND v ARGENTINA, and SAUDI ARABIA v MEXICO all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AUSTRALIA V DENMARK
3pm The crunch games continue at the World Cup on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Wednesday, with the final games in Group C and D to enjoy. We have some very interesting betting heats here; four odds on favourites but each favourite has question marks to answer. Fair to say it’s going to be a fascinating afternoon and evening! We kick the day off in Group D with Australia meeting Denmark. So far, it hasn’t been a good World Cup for Denmark with a loss and a draw to their name. However, they probably would have expected to lose to France, so it really was the draw with Tunisia that was the setback – things have gone their way elsewhere though with Australia beating Tunisia. That’s put them in a good spot to qualify again if they can win here. If Tunisia had have won it would be a very different story! For Australia, that win over Tunisia means they come into the final game sitting in second – with France expected to beat Tunisia, a draw would likely be good enough for them here. They would have watched Tunisia’s tactics in the opening game against Denmark, and it’s fair to say they might be a little negative here.
You couldn’t blame Australia for wanting the game to be as boring as possible here. Getting out of this Group would be an incredible achievement. Denmark came into this World Cup well fancied, they had been playing some nice football but they have been disappointing thus far. The Tunisia game was very even, but they conceded a bigger xG than they created and then they didn’t create much against France. They still come into this game as the odds on favourites though because Australia are pretty average. They have put themselves in a great position to qualify but they haven’t been playing good football. They were hammered by France after getting a brilliant start taking an early lead, and while they did grind out a win against Tunisia it was an exceptionally poor game. Australia took a reasonably early lead and just sat on it while Tunisia didn’t create much. I expect Australia to be very negative here with a draw doing the job, and I much prefer Under 2.5 goals at 1.94 compared to the Denmark win at 1.57. They haven’t played well enough to back them at 1.57, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AusDmk
TUNISIA V FRANCE
3pm Next we have Tunisia taking on France in Group D, and France will likely go down as the “banker” today if there is one. They will be a very popular bet in any Betdaq Multiple at around 1.57. They made it two wins from two games against Denmark, and they have pretty much been in full control so far at the World Cup. Of course they have had a few moments of worry, especially when Australia took the lead early in their opening game but they have put in two very impressive performances. Their xG figures have been 4.59 and 2.95. They came into the World Cup with plenty of question marks too – they have injury worries and they were woeful in the Nations League – it’s so far so good though. They are a much better side than Tunisia, but from a betting point of view you’d have to worry that we might see some changes to the starting XI given they sit top of the Group with six points. Australia are second with three and then Denmark and Tunisia have one. Australia aren’t going to catch them on goal difference unless they record a massive victory over Denmark so we’ll likely see France take the chance to rest some players here. This is definitely a game I wouldn’t do anything with decent stakes until seeing the team news.
Tunisia have looked very average in their opening two games. They have been pretty solid at the back, which obviously has to be taken on board when considering backing France here at the odds, but they have offered little going forward. They’ve had two games without a goal, and although they would have been pleased with the 0-0 against Denmark, the 1-0 loss to Australia was poor. Australia took the lead after 23 minutes and sat on it, but Tunisia didn’t create much at all. Depending on how many chances France made, we could get a broken game here with a very low tempo. Tunisia have to make the running considering they have to win, but I just don’t see them having the quality up front to trouble France. I’m not going to get involved in the match odds here given the situation, but I do like France to keep a clean sheet. Both Teams Not To Score is worth a small investment at 1.8.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TunFra
POLAND V ARGENTINA
7pm We move to Group C to finish the evening and we have two cracking fixtures with everything to play for. Everyone expected Argentina to top this Group without much fuss pre-tournament, but they lost their opening fixture 2-1 to Saudi Arabia and that has blown the Group wide open. That was one of the biggest shocks in World Cup history to be fair! We now have a situation where Poland top the Group with four points, Argentina and Saudi Arabia are just behind on three and then Mexico are bottom of the Group with just one. There’s definitely a situation where Mexico qualify though, they “just” need Poland to win here and they beat Saudi Arabia later – which they are odds on to do. The main problem there is Argentina are odds on to win here, and Poland have been in decline recently too. They managed a 2-0 win over Saudi Arabia but the final score doesn’t tell the full story. They conceded an xG of 2.25 and although Saudi Arabia managed to beat Argentina, they only did that through two wonderful, and unlikely, goals. Based on purely performance, they were more likely to win against Poland. I have to say I wasn’t a fan of Poland coming into the tournament, and I haven’t seen anything exciting from them yet.
They would have been entitled to beat Saudi Arabia – there is an obvious gulf in class there – but that high conceded xG does worry me. There really wasn’t much between them and Mexico in their 0-0 draw, it was a pretty boring game and both sides deserved the draw. Argentina have had their wobble, but they came roaring back under pressure against Mexico. A loss there would have knocked them out, and they controlled the game. Their xG figure wasn’t high, they took the chances they got, but they only conceded an xG of 0.19. They basically bossed the game, and I would put Poland on the same level as Mexico too. Given Poland conceded such a high xG figure against Saudi Arabia, I’d expect to see more chances for Argentina here and the 1.51 is worth taking here. Although we had a dramatic start to the tournament for Messi and co, they should still top the Group in the end with a win here. It’s hard to see Poland causing them problems, and the 1.51 is a confident selection.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Argentina to beat Poland at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PolArg
SAUDI ARABIA V MEXICO
7pm We finish Wednesday with Saudi Arabia taking on Mexico. As I mentioned above, although very unlikely for Mexico, both sides come into this game with a chance of getting through. Mexico are the odds on favourites, so you could probably say it’s unlikely for Saudi Arabia too! Saudi Arabia shocked the world with an opening win over Argentina, and although they lost 2-0 to Poland they actually played pretty well. They created an xG of 2.25 and if they can play to the same level here then they are going to cause Mexico problems. It’s hard o fully judge Mexico because obviously they had a difficult fixture against Argentina but their xG figures have been poor at this World Cup. They created 0.8 against Poland and then just 0.19 against Argentina. While Poland are in the box seat to qualify, a big win for Mexico here could see the goal difference situation turn around quickly, especially considering Argentina are expected to beat Poland. That being said, I haven’t seen enough from Mexico to justify backing them here at odds of 1.72. They just haven’t created enough – Saudi Arabia have created a higher xG figure over their two games and scored more – although zero isn’t hard to beat!
On paper, Mexico will be expected to win this game. It would be unreasonable to suggest that there isn’t a gulf in class between the sides on paper. But I fancy an upset here. Saudi Arabia have played their football full of confidence and I wouldn’t be too worried about the loss to Poland. They actually played very well. Given Saudi Arabia are likely to play an attacking style of football, that might give Mexico more chances and open the game up a bit, however I still feel that there is good value in laying Mexico at 1.72. I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the lay. I’m keeping stakes reasonably small here because we can’t get too carried away supporting Saudi Arabia, but they have shown enough to suggest that they can get a result here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Mexico to beat Saudi Arabia at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SauMex